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Google predictions & odds

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Next Google Gemini Model: Arena Debut?

Next Google Gemini Model: Arena Debut?

60%

1480+

$39.8K Vol.

$14.6K Liq.

2

Gemini 3.2 released by...?

Gemini 3.2 released by...?

94%

June 30

$85.5K Vol.

$22.7K Liq.

14

Ends in about 2 months

Gemini 3.5 released by...?

Gemini 3.5 released by...?

29%

July 31

$973K Vol.

$27.3K Liq.

54

Ends in about 2 months

New Gemini reasoning flagship released by...?

New Gemini reasoning flagship released by...?

84%

June 30

$23.4K Vol.

$12.5K Liq.

Ends in about 2 months

Which company's AI will first hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?

Which company's AI will first hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?

60%

None in 2026

$48.6K Vol.

$25.2K Liq.

3

Ends in 8 months

VEO 4 released by...?

VEO 4 released by...?

43%

June 30

$43.7K Vol.

$14 Liq.

1

How many cities will Waymo operate in by June 30?

How many cities will Waymo operate in by June 30?

44%

11

$159K Vol.

$17.0K Liq.

18

Ends in about 2 months

Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31?

Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31?

35%

↑ 1550

$88.8K Vol.

$11.2K Liq.

Ends in 8 months

Google Gemini score on Humanity’s Last Exam by June 30?

Google Gemini score on Humanity’s Last Exam by June 30?

46%

50%+

$312K Vol.

$1.1K Liq.

Google Gemini score on FrontierMath Benchmark by June 30?

Google Gemini score on FrontierMath Benchmark by June 30?

90%

40%+

$131K Vol.

$1.3K Liq.

Ends in about 2 months

Google (GOOGL) closes week of May 4 at ___?

Google (GOOGL) closes week of May 4 at ___?

36%

$390-$395

$4 Vol.

$7.6K Liq.

Ends in 2 days

Google (GOOGL) closes above ___ on May 6?

Google (GOOGL) closes above ___ on May 6?

99%

$380

$1.1K Vol.

$3.8K Liq.

Ends in about 11 hours

Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of May 4 above___?

Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of May 4 above___?

97%

$355

$724 Vol.

$10.0K Liq.

Ends in 2 days

Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on May 6?

Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on May 6?

87%

Up

$861 Vol.

$4.3K Liq.

Ends in about 11 hours

Which company has the best AI model end of May?

Which company has the best AI model end of May?

75%

Anthropic

$4M Vol.

$148K today

$2M Liq.

Ends in 25 days

Which company has best AI model end of June?

Which company has best AI model end of June?

60%

Anthropic

$5M Vol.

$959K Liq.

61

Ends in about 2 months

Which company has the third best AI model end of May?

Which company has the third best AI model end of May?

58%

Google

$65.1K Vol.

$52.9K Liq.

Ends in 25 days

Which company has the #1 AI model end of May? (Style Control On)

Which company has the #1 AI model end of May? (Style Control On)

77%

Anthropic

$300K Vol.

$182K Liq.

Ends in 25 days

Which company has the best Math AI model end of May?

Which company has the best Math AI model end of May?

48%

Anthropic

$46.5K Vol.

$51.5K Liq.

Ends in 25 days

Which company has the second best AI model end of May?

Which company has the second best AI model end of May?

85%

Anthropic

$33.9K Vol.

$55.5K Liq.

Ends in 25 days

Frequently Asked Questions

Polymarket is the world’s largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge by trading on things related to breaking news, politics, sports, elections, crypto, finance, tech, culture, including topics like Google.

Polymarket currently hosts 210 active markets for Google that lets you track or trade on predictions like “Next Google Gemini Model: Arena Debut?”. Whether you are tracking widely debated events or niche outcomes, the platform aggregates real-time odds based on over $11.8M in trading volume, providing a comprehensive view of fan and investor sentiment.

Each polymarket is a yes/no question, like “Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on May 6?”. You buy shares in “yes” or “no” outcomes. Prices reflect crowd-sourced odds and probabilities. For example, if yes is at 30 cents, that’s a 30% chance. Markets resolve based on official results. For multi-outcome events, like “Which company has best AI model end of June?,” you simply trade on the specific outcome you think will win.

As of today, the most active market is “Which company has best AI model end of June?,” where the crowd is currently assigning a 60% chance to Anthropic. These odds update in real-time as new information emerges and users trade, offering a dynamic snapshot of what the market believes will happen compared to traditional bookmaker odds.

It cuts through the noise. Unlike polls or punditry, Polymarket shows you real-time odds on Google predictions backed by financial conviction that are often faster and more accurate than experts or surveys. You get an unbiased view of what thousands of traders think will actually happen, often more accurate than polls. Plus, you can trade shares and potentially profit if your predictions are spot on.