Google’s October 1, 2026 launch of the Project Suncatcher prototype satellite carrying four Trillium TPUs aboard a SpaceX rocket represents the clearest near-term catalyst for trader sentiment on orbital AI compute. The refrigerator-sized spacecraft, built with Planet Labs, is now collecting data on radiation exposure, thermal management in vacuum, and launch vibration while running limited inference workloads. Earlier tests at UC Davis and ground simulations suggest the chips can tolerate multi-year radiation doses, yet sustained high-power operation, inter-satellite laser networking, and economical launch costs remain unproven. Parallel efforts by Starcloud (Nvidia H100) and Cowboy Space Corp add competitive momentum, while SpaceX has signaled potential “supercompute in space” demonstrations as early as 2027. These verified hardware milestones and scheduled follow-on missions are the dominant drivers shaping current market-implied odds.