Anthropic's recent Claude releases, including Opus 5 and Fable 5, currently lead independent intelligence benchmarks such as Artificial Analysis and BenchLM with top scores around 63, ahead of competitors like OpenAI's GPT-5.6. This performance edge, demonstrated through superior results in reasoning, coding, and agentic tasks, underpins the market's overwhelming 99% implied probability for Anthropic holding the best model by month-end. Traders view the consistent leaderboard dominance as strong evidence of Anthropic's competitive positioning in the large language model space. A credible new frontier release from OpenAI, Google, or xAI with materially higher benchmark scores before August 31 could still shift outcomes, though no such announcement has materialized in recent weeks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic 99.2%
OpenAI <1%
SpaceXAI <1%
Meta <1%
$2,071,270 Vol.
$2,071,270 Vol.
Aug 30, 2026
Anthropic
99%
OpenAI
1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
Meta
<1%
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Bytedance
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Thinky
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Tencent
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 99.2%
OpenAI <1%
SpaceXAI <1%
Meta <1%
$2,071,270 Vol.
$2,071,270 Vol.
Aug 30, 2026
Anthropic
$433,193 Vol.
99%
OpenAI
$181,706 Vol.
1%
SpaceXAI
$203,160 Vol.
<1%
Meta
$170,320 Vol.
<1%
$163,245 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$252,947 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$154,030 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$108,007 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$15,032 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$167,275 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$11,009 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$9,778 Vol.
<1%
Bytedance
$118,819 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$11,465 Vol.
<1%
Thinky
$14,084 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$28,168 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$4,351 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$3,803 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$4,363 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$4,993 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$11,524 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic's recent Claude releases, including Opus 5 and Fable 5, currently lead independent intelligence benchmarks such as Artificial Analysis and BenchLM with top scores around 63, ahead of competitors like OpenAI's GPT-5.6. This performance edge, demonstrated through superior results in reasoning, coding, and agentic tasks, underpins the market's overwhelming 99% implied probability for Anthropic holding the best model by month-end. Traders view the consistent leaderboard dominance as strong evidence of Anthropic's competitive positioning in the large language model space. A credible new frontier release from OpenAI, Google, or xAI with materially higher benchmark scores before August 31 could still shift outcomes, though no such announcement has materialized in recent weeks.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Jul 16, 2026, 11:09 PM ET
Volume
$2,071,270End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 16, 2026, 11:09 PM ETResolution Source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-controlResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic's recent Claude releases, including Opus 5 and Fable 5, currently lead independent intelligence benchmarks such as Artificial Analysis and BenchLM with top scores around 63, ahead of competitors like OpenAI's GPT-5.6. This performance edge, demonstrated through superior results in reasoning, coding, and agentic tasks, underpins the market's overwhelming 99% implied probability for Anthropic holding the best model by month-end. Traders view the consistent leaderboard dominance as strong evidence of Anthropic's competitive positioning in the large language model space. A credible new frontier release from OpenAI, Google, or xAI with materially higher benchmark scores before August 31 could still shift outcomes, though no such announcement has materialized in recent weeks.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$2,071,270End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 16, 2026, 11:09 PM ETResolution Source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-controlResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic's recent Claude releases, including Opus 5 and Fable 5, currently lead independent intelligence benchmarks such as Artificial Analysis and BenchLM with top scores around 63, ahead of competitors like OpenAI's GPT-5.6. This performance edge, demonstrated through superior results in reasoning, coding, and agentic tasks, underpins the market's overwhelming 99% implied probability for Anthropic holding the best model by month-end. Traders view the consistent leaderboard dominance as strong evidence of Anthropic's competitive positioning in the large language model space. A credible new frontier release from OpenAI, Google, or xAI with materially higher benchmark scores before August 31 could still shift outcomes, though no such announcement has materialized in recent weeks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions