SpaceX (SPCX) shares traded in a tight $130–$146 band during the week of August 17 amid heavy volume exceeding 100 million shares daily, settling near $134–$136 as a 319-million-share insider unlock hit the tape on August 20. This supply surge, valued at roughly $44–45 billion at prevailing prices and equating to 2.65 times average daily turnover, exerted clear downward pressure after the stock had already retraced from June highs above $225 toward its $135 IPO level. Traders priced in the dilution effect and ongoing post-listing volatility, producing the 94.5% market-implied probability for the $135–$140 bucket. A stronger-than-expected absorption of the unlocked shares or material positive catalysts in Starlink or AI compute contracts could still lift the close above that range, though the immediate supply overhang makes such an outcome improbable.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$135-$140 100.0%
<$120 <1%
$120-$125 <1%
$125-$130 <1%
$476 Vol.
$476 Vol.
Aug 21, 2026
<$120
No
$120-$125
No
$125-$130
No
$130-$135
No
$135-$140
Yes
$140-$145
No
$145-$150
No
$150-$155
No
$155-$160
No
$160-$165
No
>$165
No
$135-$140 100.0%
<$120 <1%
$120-$125 <1%
$125-$130 <1%
$476 Vol.
$476 Vol.
Aug 21, 2026
<$120
$53 Vol.
No
$120-$125
$53 Vol.
No
$125-$130
$20 Vol.
No
$130-$135
$109 Vol.
No
$135-$140
$121 Vol.
Yes
$140-$145
$20 Vol.
No
$145-$150
$20 Vol.
No
$150-$155
$20 Vol.
No
$155-$160
$20 Vol.
No
$160-$165
$20 Vol.
No
>$165
$20 Vol.
No
This market will resolve according to the Close price for SpaceX (SPCX) on the final day of trading of the week specified in the title (normally Friday).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding.
For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the relevant session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of that shortened session will be used.
If the relevant day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle for SpaceX (SPCX) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPCX%2FUSD.SpaceX (SPCX) shares traded in a tight $130–$146 band during the week of August 17 amid heavy volume exceeding 100 million shares daily, settling near $134–$136 as a 319-million-share insider unlock hit the tape on August 20. This supply surge, valued at roughly $44–45 billion at prevailing prices and equating to 2.65 times average daily turnover, exerted clear downward pressure after the stock had already retraced from June highs above $225 toward its $135 IPO level. Traders priced in the dilution effect and ongoing post-listing volatility, producing the 94.5% market-implied probability for the $135–$140 bucket. A stronger-than-expected absorption of the unlocked shares or material positive catalysts in Starlink or AI compute contracts could still lift the close above that range, though the immediate supply overhang makes such an outcome improbable.
This market will resolve according to the Close price for SpaceX (SPCX) on the final day of trading of the week specified in the title (normally Friday).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding.
For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the relevant session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of that shortened session will be used.
If the relevant day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle for SpaceX (SPCX) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPCX%2FUSD.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding.
For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the relevant session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of that shortened session will be used.
If the relevant day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle for SpaceX (SPCX) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPCX%2FUSD.
Market Opened: Aug 16, 2026, 7:12 PM ET
Volume
$476End Date
Aug 21, 2026Market Opened
Aug 16, 2026, 7:12 PM ETResolution Source
https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPCX%2FUSDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve according to the Close price for SpaceX (SPCX) on the final day of trading of the week specified in the title (normally Friday).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding.
For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the relevant session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of that shortened session will be used.
If the relevant day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle for SpaceX (SPCX) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPCX%2FUSD.SpaceX (SPCX) shares traded in a tight $130–$146 band during the week of August 17 amid heavy volume exceeding 100 million shares daily, settling near $134–$136 as a 319-million-share insider unlock hit the tape on August 20. This supply surge, valued at roughly $44–45 billion at prevailing prices and equating to 2.65 times average daily turnover, exerted clear downward pressure after the stock had already retraced from June highs above $225 toward its $135 IPO level. Traders priced in the dilution effect and ongoing post-listing volatility, producing the 94.5% market-implied probability for the $135–$140 bucket. A stronger-than-expected absorption of the unlocked shares or material positive catalysts in Starlink or AI compute contracts could still lift the close above that range, though the immediate supply overhang makes such an outcome improbable.
This market will resolve according to the Close price for SpaceX (SPCX) on the final day of trading of the week specified in the title (normally Friday).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding.
For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the relevant session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of that shortened session will be used.
If the relevant day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle for SpaceX (SPCX) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPCX%2FUSD.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding.
For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the relevant session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of that shortened session will be used.
If the relevant day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle for SpaceX (SPCX) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPCX%2FUSD.
Volume
$476End Date
Aug 21, 2026Market Opened
Aug 16, 2026, 7:12 PM ETResolution Source
https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPCX%2FUSDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
SpaceX (SPCX) shares traded in a tight $130–$146 band during the week of August 17 amid heavy volume exceeding 100 million shares daily, settling near $134–$136 as a 319-million-share insider unlock hit the tape on August 20. This supply surge, valued at roughly $44–45 billion at prevailing prices and equating to 2.65 times average daily turnover, exerted clear downward pressure after the stock had already retraced from June highs above $225 toward its $135 IPO level. Traders priced in the dilution effect and ongoing post-listing volatility, producing the 94.5% market-implied probability for the $135–$140 bucket. A stronger-than-expected absorption of the unlocked shares or material positive catalysts in Starlink or AI compute contracts could still lift the close above that range, though the immediate supply overhang makes such an outcome improbable.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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