Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) forecasts point to a high near 16°C in Seoul on March 29, fueling trader consensus with implied probabilities clustered tightly around 14–17°C outcomes amid springlike mildness. Recent ensemble model runs from ECMWF and GFS diverge slightly due to uncertain northerly wind influences and patchy cloud cover, which could suppress peaks by 2–3°C or allow brief sun-driven spikes; upper-air ridging supports above-normal temps versus March's 12°C historical average. This genuine uncertainty reflects model spread typical 48 hours out, with low odds on extremes from stable pressure patterns. KMA's next advisory in 12 hours may refine guidance ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Seoul on March 29?
Highest temperature in Seoul on March 29?
14°C 21%
17°C or higher 20%
15°C 19%
16°C 16%
7°C or below
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
2%
10°C
2%
11°C
6%
12°C
9%
13°C
14%
14°C
21%
15°C
19%
16°C
16%
17°C or higher
20%
14°C 21%
17°C or higher 20%
15°C 19%
16°C 16%
7°C or below
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
2%
10°C
2%
11°C
6%
12°C
9%
13°C
14%
14°C
21%
15°C
19%
16°C
16%
17°C or higher
20%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 25, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) forecasts point to a high near 16°C in Seoul on March 29, fueling trader consensus with implied probabilities clustered tightly around 14–17°C outcomes amid springlike mildness. Recent ensemble model runs from ECMWF and GFS diverge slightly due to uncertain northerly wind influences and patchy cloud cover, which could suppress peaks by 2–3°C or allow brief sun-driven spikes; upper-air ridging supports above-normal temps versus March's 12°C historical average. This genuine uncertainty reflects model spread typical 48 hours out, with low odds on extremes from stable pressure patterns. KMA's next advisory in 12 hours may refine guidance ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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