Polymarket traders assign a 99% implied probability to peak 2026 CPI year-over-year inflation exceeding 3%, with 92% odds above 3.5% and 61% above 4%, reflecting consensus on reacceleration risks despite February's steady 2.4% print—its lowest since May 2025. This sentiment stems from the Federal Open Market Committee's March 18 projections showing wide confidence bands up to 3.7%, sticky core PCE at 3% in January, and economist warnings like the global forecasting group's revised 4.2% outlook amid tariff threats and robust labor data. Traders eye policy shifts under new administration fiscal impulses; key catalysts include tomorrow's March CPI release on April 10 and the May FOMC meeting.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated$397,280 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Above 3%
99%
Above 3.5%
91%
Above 4%
61%
Above 5%
34%
Above 6%
17%
Above 8%
10%
Above 10%
7%
$397,280 Vol.
Above 3%
$235,402 Vol.
99%
Above 3.5%
$37,088 Vol.
91%
Above 4%
$62,621 Vol.
61%
Above 5%
$19,695 Vol.
34%
Above 6%
$16,671 Vol.
17%
Above 8%
$19,021 Vol.
10%
Above 10%
$6,783 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by greater than the listed percent over the 12 month period ending with any month in 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index reports released for each month of 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm). Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the December 2026 report is issued. Once the December 2026 report is issued, any revisions to previously released CPI figures will not be counted toward this market's resolution. If the CPI report for December 2026 is not issued by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on CPI figures which have already been made available by the BLS.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Polymarket traders assign a 99% implied probability to peak 2026 CPI year-over-year inflation exceeding 3%, with 92% odds above 3.5% and 61% above 4%, reflecting consensus on reacceleration risks despite February's steady 2.4% print—its lowest since May 2025. This sentiment stems from the Federal Open Market Committee's March 18 projections showing wide confidence bands up to 3.7%, sticky core PCE at 3% in January, and economist warnings like the global forecasting group's revised 4.2% outlook amid tariff threats and robust labor data. Traders eye policy shifts under new administration fiscal impulses; key catalysts include tomorrow's March CPI release on April 10 and the May FOMC meeting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by greater than the listed percent over the 12 month period ending with any month in 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index reports released for each month of 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm). Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the December 2026 report is issued. Once the December 2026 report is issued, any revisions to previously released CPI figures will not be counted toward this market's resolution. If the CPI report for December 2026 is not issued by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on CPI figures which have already been made available by the BLS.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index reports released for each month of 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm). Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the December 2026 report is issued. Once the December 2026 report is issued, any revisions to previously released CPI figures will not be counted toward this market's resolution. If the CPI report for December 2026 is not issued by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on CPI figures which have already been made available by the BLS.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Market Opened: Nov 13, 2025, 4:31 PM ET
Volume
$397,280End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 13, 2025, 4:31 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by greater than the listed percent over the 12 month period ending with any month in 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index reports released for each month of 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm). Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the December 2026 report is issued. Once the December 2026 report is issued, any revisions to previously released CPI figures will not be counted toward this market's resolution. If the CPI report for December 2026 is not issued by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on CPI figures which have already been made available by the BLS.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Polymarket traders assign a 99% implied probability to peak 2026 CPI year-over-year inflation exceeding 3%, with 92% odds above 3.5% and 61% above 4%, reflecting consensus on reacceleration risks despite February's steady 2.4% print—its lowest since May 2025. This sentiment stems from the Federal Open Market Committee's March 18 projections showing wide confidence bands up to 3.7%, sticky core PCE at 3% in January, and economist warnings like the global forecasting group's revised 4.2% outlook amid tariff threats and robust labor data. Traders eye policy shifts under new administration fiscal impulses; key catalysts include tomorrow's March CPI release on April 10 and the May FOMC meeting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by greater than the listed percent over the 12 month period ending with any month in 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index reports released for each month of 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm). Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the December 2026 report is issued. Once the December 2026 report is issued, any revisions to previously released CPI figures will not be counted toward this market's resolution. If the CPI report for December 2026 is not issued by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on CPI figures which have already been made available by the BLS.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index reports released for each month of 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm). Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the December 2026 report is issued. Once the December 2026 report is issued, any revisions to previously released CPI figures will not be counted toward this market's resolution. If the CPI report for December 2026 is not issued by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on CPI figures which have already been made available by the BLS.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volume
$397,280End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 13, 2025, 4:31 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Polymarket traders assign a 99% implied probability to peak 2026 CPI year-over-year inflation exceeding 3%, with 92% odds above 3.5% and 61% above 4%, reflecting consensus on reacceleration risks despite February's steady 2.4% print—its lowest since May 2025. This sentiment stems from the Federal Open Market Committee's March 18 projections showing wide confidence bands up to 3.7%, sticky core PCE at 3% in January, and economist warnings like the global forecasting group's revised 4.2% outlook amid tariff threats and robust labor data. Traders eye policy shifts under new administration fiscal impulses; key catalysts include tomorrow's March CPI release on April 10 and the May FOMC meeting.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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