The Bureau of Labor Statistics released March 2026 Consumer Price Index data on April 10, showing a 0.9% month-over-month increase in the CPI-U, seasonally adjusted—well above the prior month's 0.3% and confirming trader consensus at 100% implied probability for ≥0.8%. This surge was driven primarily by a 10.9% jump in the energy index, with gasoline prices soaring 21.2% and accounting for nearly three-quarters of the headline gain, amid geopolitical tensions elevating oil prices. Shelter rose modestly 0.3%, food was flat, and core CPI (excluding food and energy) edged up 0.2%, lifting annual inflation to 3.3% from 2.4%. While the official print locks in resolution, rare BLS revisions or data discrepancies could theoretically challenge positioning ahead of the next FOMC review.