Recent strong May jobs data, with nonfarm payrolls significantly exceeding expectations, combined with persistent inflation pressures tied to geopolitical factors, have shifted trader sentiment toward a higher probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike before year-end. The federal funds rate currently sits at 3.50-3.75%, and markets price near-certain holds at the June 16-17 FOMC meeting under new Chair Kevin Warsh. Futures imply a gradual rise toward 3.8% by late 2026, while prediction platforms show 50-70% odds of at least one 25 basis point hike this year. Resilient economic activity and labor market conditions have reduced expectations for cuts, elevating the bar for policy easing and supporting a more hawkish tilt in trader positioning ahead of upcoming data releases.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$177,648 거래량
2026.12.09
6월 회의
<1%
7월 회의
7%
9월 회의
16%
10월 회의
19%
$177,648 거래량
6월 회의
$33,667 거래량
<1%
7월 회의
$2,703 거래량
7%
9월 회의
$6,672 거래량
16%
10월 회의
$3,297 거래량
19%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent strong May jobs data, with nonfarm payrolls significantly exceeding expectations, combined with persistent inflation pressures tied to geopolitical factors, have shifted trader sentiment toward a higher probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike before year-end. The federal funds rate currently sits at 3.50-3.75%, and markets price near-certain holds at the June 16-17 FOMC meeting under new Chair Kevin Warsh. Futures imply a gradual rise toward 3.8% by late 2026, while prediction platforms show 50-70% odds of at least one 25 basis point hike this year. Resilient economic activity and labor market conditions have reduced expectations for cuts, elevating the bar for policy easing and supporting a more hawkish tilt in trader positioning ahead of upcoming data releases.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
마켓 개설일: Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
거래량
$177,648종료일
2026.10.29마켓 개설일
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent strong May jobs data, with nonfarm payrolls significantly exceeding expectations, combined with persistent inflation pressures tied to geopolitical factors, have shifted trader sentiment toward a higher probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike before year-end. The federal funds rate currently sits at 3.50-3.75%, and markets price near-certain holds at the June 16-17 FOMC meeting under new Chair Kevin Warsh. Futures imply a gradual rise toward 3.8% by late 2026, while prediction platforms show 50-70% odds of at least one 25 basis point hike this year. Resilient economic activity and labor market conditions have reduced expectations for cuts, elevating the bar for policy easing and supporting a more hawkish tilt in trader positioning ahead of upcoming data releases.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
거래량
$177,648종료일
2026.10.29마켓 개설일
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent strong May jobs data, with nonfarm payrolls significantly exceeding expectations, combined with persistent inflation pressures tied to geopolitical factors, have shifted trader sentiment toward a higher probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike before year-end. The federal funds rate currently sits at 3.50-3.75%, and markets price near-certain holds at the June 16-17 FOMC meeting under new Chair Kevin Warsh. Futures imply a gradual rise toward 3.8% by late 2026, while prediction platforms show 50-70% odds of at least one 25 basis point hike this year. Resilient economic activity and labor market conditions have reduced expectations for cuts, elevating the bar for policy easing and supporting a more hawkish tilt in trader positioning ahead of upcoming data releases.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
자주 묻는 질문