Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a mere 1% implied probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike at the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, with odds climbing modestly to 22% by October amid resilient labor markets and cooling inflation pressures despite recent shocks. March CPI surged to 3.3% year-over-year—up from 2.4%—driven by war-related oil disruptions from the Iran conflict, prompting FOMC minutes released April 8 to elevate 2026 inflation forecasts and signal some openness to hikes, though officials still project cuts this year. Nonfarm payrolls added 178,000 jobs with unemployment steady at 4.3%, supporting a hold at the current 3.50%-3.75% fed funds target range. The April decision looms as the pivotal catalyst, ahead of May 12 CPI data.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$31,312 거래량
2026.12.09
4월 회의
1%
6월 회의
4%
7월 회의
17%
9월 회의
16%
10월 회의
22%
$31,312 거래량
4월 회의
$24,301 거래량
1%
6월 회의
$6,580 거래량
4%
7월 회의
$372 거래량
17%
9월 회의
$3 거래량
16%
10월 회의
$55 거래량
22%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a mere 1% implied probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike at the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, with odds climbing modestly to 22% by October amid resilient labor markets and cooling inflation pressures despite recent shocks. March CPI surged to 3.3% year-over-year—up from 2.4%—driven by war-related oil disruptions from the Iran conflict, prompting FOMC minutes released April 8 to elevate 2026 inflation forecasts and signal some openness to hikes, though officials still project cuts this year. Nonfarm payrolls added 178,000 jobs with unemployment steady at 4.3%, supporting a hold at the current 3.50%-3.75% fed funds target range. The April decision looms as the pivotal catalyst, ahead of May 12 CPI data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
마켓 개설일: Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
거래량
$31,312종료일
2026.10.29마켓 개설일
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a mere 1% implied probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike at the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, with odds climbing modestly to 22% by October amid resilient labor markets and cooling inflation pressures despite recent shocks. March CPI surged to 3.3% year-over-year—up from 2.4%—driven by war-related oil disruptions from the Iran conflict, prompting FOMC minutes released April 8 to elevate 2026 inflation forecasts and signal some openness to hikes, though officials still project cuts this year. Nonfarm payrolls added 178,000 jobs with unemployment steady at 4.3%, supporting a hold at the current 3.50%-3.75% fed funds target range. The April decision looms as the pivotal catalyst, ahead of May 12 CPI data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
거래량
$31,312종료일
2026.10.29마켓 개설일
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a mere 1% implied probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike at the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, with odds climbing modestly to 22% by October amid resilient labor markets and cooling inflation pressures despite recent shocks. March CPI surged to 3.3% year-over-year—up from 2.4%—driven by war-related oil disruptions from the Iran conflict, prompting FOMC minutes released April 8 to elevate 2026 inflation forecasts and signal some openness to hikes, though officials still project cuts this year. Nonfarm payrolls added 178,000 jobs with unemployment steady at 4.3%, supporting a hold at the current 3.50%-3.75% fed funds target range. The April decision looms as the pivotal catalyst, ahead of May 12 CPI data.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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