Recent hotter-than-expected inflation readings and Middle East tensions have shifted trader sentiment toward the possibility of a Federal Reserve rate hike later in 2026 or early 2027, reversing earlier expectations for cuts. The target range stands at 3.50–3.75 percent following the April FOMC decision to hold steady, with the effective federal funds rate near 3.62 percent. April meeting minutes revealed a growing openness among officials to higher rates if inflation persists above the 2 percent goal, while resilient consumer spending and labor market data have reduced the case for near-term easing. CME FedWatch currently prices a roughly 50–60 percent probability of a 25 basis point increase by January 2027. Key upcoming catalysts include the June 16–17 FOMC meeting and the next CPI release, which could further influence the policy path.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$153,594 거래량
2026.12.09
6월 회의
1%
7월 회의
3%
9월 회의
30%
10월 회의
24%
$153,594 거래량
6월 회의
$15,633 거래량
1%
7월 회의
$1,710 거래량
3%
9월 회의
$2,400 거래량
30%
10월 회의
$2,545 거래량
24%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent hotter-than-expected inflation readings and Middle East tensions have shifted trader sentiment toward the possibility of a Federal Reserve rate hike later in 2026 or early 2027, reversing earlier expectations for cuts. The target range stands at 3.50–3.75 percent following the April FOMC decision to hold steady, with the effective federal funds rate near 3.62 percent. April meeting minutes revealed a growing openness among officials to higher rates if inflation persists above the 2 percent goal, while resilient consumer spending and labor market data have reduced the case for near-term easing. CME FedWatch currently prices a roughly 50–60 percent probability of a 25 basis point increase by January 2027. Key upcoming catalysts include the June 16–17 FOMC meeting and the next CPI release, which could further influence the policy path.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
마켓 개설일: Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
거래량
$153,594종료일
2026.10.29마켓 개설일
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent hotter-than-expected inflation readings and Middle East tensions have shifted trader sentiment toward the possibility of a Federal Reserve rate hike later in 2026 or early 2027, reversing earlier expectations for cuts. The target range stands at 3.50–3.75 percent following the April FOMC decision to hold steady, with the effective federal funds rate near 3.62 percent. April meeting minutes revealed a growing openness among officials to higher rates if inflation persists above the 2 percent goal, while resilient consumer spending and labor market data have reduced the case for near-term easing. CME FedWatch currently prices a roughly 50–60 percent probability of a 25 basis point increase by January 2027. Key upcoming catalysts include the June 16–17 FOMC meeting and the next CPI release, which could further influence the policy path.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
거래량
$153,594종료일
2026.10.29마켓 개설일
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent hotter-than-expected inflation readings and Middle East tensions have shifted trader sentiment toward the possibility of a Federal Reserve rate hike later in 2026 or early 2027, reversing earlier expectations for cuts. The target range stands at 3.50–3.75 percent following the April FOMC decision to hold steady, with the effective federal funds rate near 3.62 percent. April meeting minutes revealed a growing openness among officials to higher rates if inflation persists above the 2 percent goal, while resilient consumer spending and labor market data have reduced the case for near-term easing. CME FedWatch currently prices a roughly 50–60 percent probability of a 25 basis point increase by January 2027. Key upcoming catalysts include the June 16–17 FOMC meeting and the next CPI release, which could further influence the policy path.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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