Polymarket traders show a tight race in South Africa annual inflation for 2026, with 4.7-5.0% at 25.5% implied probability edging >5.0% (23.9%) and 4.4-4.7% (20.9%), reflecting uncertainty over the inflation trajectory amid recent disinflation. October 2024 CPI eased to 3.4% year-over-year—its lowest in over four years—driven by lower fuel and food prices, yet core inflation held at 4.0%, signaling stickiness. South African Reserve Bank (SARB) projections via its Quarterly Projection Model point to 4.5% average in 2025 and 4.3% in 2026, but traders price in upside risks from 2025 electricity tariff hikes (Eskom proposals up to 36%), rand volatility (USD/ZAR near 18), and wage settlements. Key swing factors include November CPI (due mid-December) and SARB's January 2025 policy meeting, where further 25-basis-point rate cuts could anchor expectations below 5%.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedSouth Africa Annual Inflation 2026
South Africa Annual Inflation 2026
4.7-5.0% 27%
>5.0% 21.9%
3.8-4.1% 16.0%
4.1-4.4% 14%
$19,241 Vol.
$19,241 Vol.
Jan 20, 2027
<2.6%
3%
2.6-2.9%
10%
2.9-3.2%
10%
3.2-3.5%
15%
3.5-3.8%
15%
3.8-4.1%
16%
4.1-4.4%
14%
4.4-4.7%
13%
4.7-5.0%
27%
>5.0%
22%
4.7-5.0% 27%
>5.0% 21.9%
3.8-4.1% 16.0%
4.1-4.4% 14%
$19,241 Vol.
$19,241 Vol.
Jan 20, 2027
<2.6%
$0 Vol.
3%
2.6-2.9%
$0 Vol.
10%
2.9-3.2%
$0 Vol.
10%
3.2-3.5%
$0 Vol.
15%
3.5-3.8%
$428 Vol.
15%
3.8-4.1%
$633 Vol.
16%
4.1-4.4%
$0 Vol.
14%
4.4-4.7%
$12,058 Vol.
13%
4.7-5.0%
$318 Vol.
27%
>5.0%
$5,804 Vol.
22%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in South Africa over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Y/Y, % change), as reported by Statistics South Africa.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics South Africa report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Publications page (https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1859), selecting the report, and selecting “Key Findings (Summary)". The relevant figure will be the figure for annual consumer price inflation (Y/Y, %) in the relevant month. Changes in Statistics South Africa’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index report which reports inflation during 12-month periods to one decimal point (e.g. 3.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1874Polymarket traders show a tight race in South Africa annual inflation for 2026, with 4.7-5.0% at 25.5% implied probability edging >5.0% (23.9%) and 4.4-4.7% (20.9%), reflecting uncertainty over the inflation trajectory amid recent disinflation. October 2024 CPI eased to 3.4% year-over-year—its lowest in over four years—driven by lower fuel and food prices, yet core inflation held at 4.0%, signaling stickiness. South African Reserve Bank (SARB) projections via its Quarterly Projection Model point to 4.5% average in 2025 and 4.3% in 2026, but traders price in upside risks from 2025 electricity tariff hikes (Eskom proposals up to 36%), rand volatility (USD/ZAR near 18), and wage settlements. Key swing factors include November CPI (due mid-December) and SARB's January 2025 policy meeting, where further 25-basis-point rate cuts could anchor expectations below 5%.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in South Africa over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Y/Y, % change), as reported by Statistics South Africa.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics South Africa report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Publications page (https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1859), selecting the report, and selecting “Key Findings (Summary)". The relevant figure will be the figure for annual consumer price inflation (Y/Y, %) in the relevant month. Changes in Statistics South Africa’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index report which reports inflation during 12-month periods to one decimal point (e.g. 3.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1874
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics South Africa report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Publications page (https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1859), selecting the report, and selecting “Key Findings (Summary)". The relevant figure will be the figure for annual consumer price inflation (Y/Y, %) in the relevant month. Changes in Statistics South Africa’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index report which reports inflation during 12-month periods to one decimal point (e.g. 3.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1874
Market Opened: Jan 26, 2026, 5:50 PM ET
Volume
$19,241End Date
Jan 20, 2027Market Opened
Jan 26, 2026, 5:50 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in South Africa over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Y/Y, % change), as reported by Statistics South Africa.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics South Africa report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Publications page (https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1859), selecting the report, and selecting “Key Findings (Summary)". The relevant figure will be the figure for annual consumer price inflation (Y/Y, %) in the relevant month. Changes in Statistics South Africa’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index report which reports inflation during 12-month periods to one decimal point (e.g. 3.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1874Polymarket traders show a tight race in South Africa annual inflation for 2026, with 4.7-5.0% at 25.5% implied probability edging >5.0% (23.9%) and 4.4-4.7% (20.9%), reflecting uncertainty over the inflation trajectory amid recent disinflation. October 2024 CPI eased to 3.4% year-over-year—its lowest in over four years—driven by lower fuel and food prices, yet core inflation held at 4.0%, signaling stickiness. South African Reserve Bank (SARB) projections via its Quarterly Projection Model point to 4.5% average in 2025 and 4.3% in 2026, but traders price in upside risks from 2025 electricity tariff hikes (Eskom proposals up to 36%), rand volatility (USD/ZAR near 18), and wage settlements. Key swing factors include November CPI (due mid-December) and SARB's January 2025 policy meeting, where further 25-basis-point rate cuts could anchor expectations below 5%.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in South Africa over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Y/Y, % change), as reported by Statistics South Africa.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics South Africa report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Publications page (https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1859), selecting the report, and selecting “Key Findings (Summary)". The relevant figure will be the figure for annual consumer price inflation (Y/Y, %) in the relevant month. Changes in Statistics South Africa’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index report which reports inflation during 12-month periods to one decimal point (e.g. 3.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1874
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics South Africa report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Publications page (https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1859), selecting the report, and selecting “Key Findings (Summary)". The relevant figure will be the figure for annual consumer price inflation (Y/Y, %) in the relevant month. Changes in Statistics South Africa’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index report which reports inflation during 12-month periods to one decimal point (e.g. 3.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1874
Volume
$19,241End Date
Jan 20, 2027Market Opened
Jan 26, 2026, 5:50 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders show a tight race in South Africa annual inflation for 2026, with 4.7-5.0% at 25.5% implied probability edging >5.0% (23.9%) and 4.4-4.7% (20.9%), reflecting uncertainty over the inflation trajectory amid recent disinflation. October 2024 CPI eased to 3.4% year-over-year—its lowest in over four years—driven by lower fuel and food prices, yet core inflation held at 4.0%, signaling stickiness. South African Reserve Bank (SARB) projections via its Quarterly Projection Model point to 4.5% average in 2025 and 4.3% in 2026, but traders price in upside risks from 2025 electricity tariff hikes (Eskom proposals up to 36%), rand volatility (USD/ZAR near 18), and wage settlements. Key swing factors include November CPI (due mid-December) and SARB's January 2025 policy meeting, where further 25-basis-point rate cuts could anchor expectations below 5%.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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