Polymarket traders price a 90.5% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate change at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, reflecting the April 28-29 Committee's decision to hold the fed funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid sticky inflation—March CPI rose 3.3% year-over-year, the highest since mid-2024—and resilient labor markets with 178,000 nonfarm payroll gains. Elevated oil prices and solid economic expansion have diminished near-term cut expectations, aligning with CME FedWatch odds near 92% for a July pause, while hike probabilities remain marginal absent further inflation surges. Key catalysts ahead include April CPI on May 12 and the June FOMC; downside data surprises could lift 25 bps cut odds above 10%, though persistent price pressures might challenge the hold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNo change 91%
25 bps decrease 5.1%
25 bps increase 3.4%
50+ bps decrease 1.8%
$4,723,432 Vol.
$4,723,432 Vol.
Jul 29, 2026
50+ bps decrease
2%
25 bps decrease
5%
No change
91%
25 bps increase
3%
50+ bps increase
1%
No change 91%
25 bps decrease 5.1%
25 bps increase 3.4%
50+ bps decrease 1.8%
$4,723,432 Vol.
$4,723,432 Vol.
Jul 29, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$367,043 Vol.
2%
25 bps decrease
$272,845 Vol.
5%
No change
$506,576 Vol.
91%
25 bps increase
$3,219,664 Vol.
3%
50+ bps increase
$357,304 Vol.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders price a 90.5% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate change at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, reflecting the April 28-29 Committee's decision to hold the fed funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid sticky inflation—March CPI rose 3.3% year-over-year, the highest since mid-2024—and resilient labor markets with 178,000 nonfarm payroll gains. Elevated oil prices and solid economic expansion have diminished near-term cut expectations, aligning with CME FedWatch odds near 92% for a July pause, while hike probabilities remain marginal absent further inflation surges. Key catalysts ahead include April CPI on May 12 and the June FOMC; downside data surprises could lift 25 bps cut odds above 10%, though persistent price pressures might challenge the hold.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Market Opened: Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
Volume
$4,723,432End Date
Jul 29, 2026Market Opened
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders price a 90.5% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate change at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, reflecting the April 28-29 Committee's decision to hold the fed funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid sticky inflation—March CPI rose 3.3% year-over-year, the highest since mid-2024—and resilient labor markets with 178,000 nonfarm payroll gains. Elevated oil prices and solid economic expansion have diminished near-term cut expectations, aligning with CME FedWatch odds near 92% for a July pause, while hike probabilities remain marginal absent further inflation surges. Key catalysts ahead include April CPI on May 12 and the June FOMC; downside data surprises could lift 25 bps cut odds above 10%, though persistent price pressures might challenge the hold.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$4,723,432End Date
Jul 29, 2026Market Opened
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Polymarket traders price a 90.5% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate change at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, reflecting the April 28-29 Committee's decision to hold the fed funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid sticky inflation—March CPI rose 3.3% year-over-year, the highest since mid-2024—and resilient labor markets with 178,000 nonfarm payroll gains. Elevated oil prices and solid economic expansion have diminished near-term cut expectations, aligning with CME FedWatch odds near 92% for a July pause, while hike probabilities remain marginal absent further inflation surges. Key catalysts ahead include April CPI on May 12 and the June FOMC; downside data surprises could lift 25 bps cut odds above 10%, though persistent price pressures might challenge the hold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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