Elevated April 2026 CPI at 3.8% year-over-year—the highest reading since 2023, fueled by a 17.9% surge in energy prices amid geopolitical tensions—combined with the Federal Reserve’s third consecutive hold at the 3.50–3.75% federal funds target range in April has anchored trader consensus at a 92.5% implied probability of no change at the July 28–29 FOMC meeting. Persistent inflation pressures and a stable labor market have reinforced expectations that policymakers will maintain the current stance to assess incoming data. June CPI and employment releases represent the primary near-term catalysts that could shift odds if they show meaningful cooling, while a hotter-than-expected print would further entrench the hold. Market-implied odds reflect skin-in-the-game sentiment that balances these risks against a resilient economic backdrop.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoSem mudança 93%
Aumento de 25 pontos-base 4.5%
Redução de 25 pontos-base 3.1%
Redução de mais de 50 pontos-base <1%
$7,014,316 Vol.
$7,014,316 Vol.
29 jul 2026
Redução de mais de 50 pontos-base
1%
Redução de 25 pontos-base
3%
Sem mudança
93%
Aumento de 25 pontos-base
5%
Aumento de mais de 50 pontos-base
<1%
Sem mudança 93%
Aumento de 25 pontos-base 4.5%
Redução de 25 pontos-base 3.1%
Redução de mais de 50 pontos-base <1%
$7,014,316 Vol.
$7,014,316 Vol.
29 jul 2026
Redução de mais de 50 pontos-base
$867,231 Vol.
1%
Redução de 25 pontos-base
$698,861 Vol.
3%
Sem mudança
$885,508 Vol.
93%
Aumento de 25 pontos-base
$3,696,565 Vol.
5%
Aumento de mais de 50 pontos-base
$866,195 Vol.
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Elevated April 2026 CPI at 3.8% year-over-year—the highest reading since 2023, fueled by a 17.9% surge in energy prices amid geopolitical tensions—combined with the Federal Reserve’s third consecutive hold at the 3.50–3.75% federal funds target range in April has anchored trader consensus at a 92.5% implied probability of no change at the July 28–29 FOMC meeting. Persistent inflation pressures and a stable labor market have reinforced expectations that policymakers will maintain the current stance to assess incoming data. June CPI and employment releases represent the primary near-term catalysts that could shift odds if they show meaningful cooling, while a hotter-than-expected print would further entrench the hold. Market-implied odds reflect skin-in-the-game sentiment that balances these risks against a resilient economic backdrop.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
Volume
$7,014,316Data de Término
29 jul 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Elevated April 2026 CPI at 3.8% year-over-year—the highest reading since 2023, fueled by a 17.9% surge in energy prices amid geopolitical tensions—combined with the Federal Reserve’s third consecutive hold at the 3.50–3.75% federal funds target range in April has anchored trader consensus at a 92.5% implied probability of no change at the July 28–29 FOMC meeting. Persistent inflation pressures and a stable labor market have reinforced expectations that policymakers will maintain the current stance to assess incoming data. June CPI and employment releases represent the primary near-term catalysts that could shift odds if they show meaningful cooling, while a hotter-than-expected print would further entrench the hold. Market-implied odds reflect skin-in-the-game sentiment that balances these risks against a resilient economic backdrop.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$7,014,316Data de Término
29 jul 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elevated April 2026 CPI at 3.8% year-over-year—the highest reading since 2023, fueled by a 17.9% surge in energy prices amid geopolitical tensions—combined with the Federal Reserve’s third consecutive hold at the 3.50–3.75% federal funds target range in April has anchored trader consensus at a 92.5% implied probability of no change at the July 28–29 FOMC meeting. Persistent inflation pressures and a stable labor market have reinforced expectations that policymakers will maintain the current stance to assess incoming data. June CPI and employment releases represent the primary near-term catalysts that could shift odds if they show meaningful cooling, while a hotter-than-expected print would further entrench the hold. Market-implied odds reflect skin-in-the-game sentiment that balances these risks against a resilient economic backdrop.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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