Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors no change in the federal funds rate at the July 29-30, 2026 FOMC meeting, with an implied probability of 90.5% backed by real capital at stake. This strong positioning stems from hotter-than-expected March 2026 CPI inflation at 3.3% year-over-year—the highest since May 2024—and resilient labor markets, evidenced by 178,000 nonfarm payroll additions that month. The Fed's April 28-29 decision to hold rates steady at 3.50%-3.75%, despite four dissenting votes for cuts, reinforced a "higher-for-longer" stance amid solid economic expansion. Realistic challenges include weaker-than-forecast April nonfarm payrolls (due May 8) or softer CPI data (May 12), potentially reviving 25 basis point cut odds toward 10%.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNo change 91%
25 bps decrease 5.1%
25 bps increase 3.3%
50+ bps decrease 1.8%
$4,704,961 Vol.
$4,704,961 Vol.
Jul 29, 2026
50+ bps decrease
2%
25 bps decrease
5%
No change
91%
25 bps increase
3%
50+ bps increase
1%
No change 91%
25 bps decrease 5.1%
25 bps increase 3.3%
50+ bps decrease 1.8%
$4,704,961 Vol.
$4,704,961 Vol.
Jul 29, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$360,608 Vol.
2%
25 bps decrease
$271,367 Vol.
5%
No change
$503,194 Vol.
91%
25 bps increase
$3,215,491 Vol.
3%
50+ bps increase
$354,302 Vol.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors no change in the federal funds rate at the July 29-30, 2026 FOMC meeting, with an implied probability of 90.5% backed by real capital at stake. This strong positioning stems from hotter-than-expected March 2026 CPI inflation at 3.3% year-over-year—the highest since May 2024—and resilient labor markets, evidenced by 178,000 nonfarm payroll additions that month. The Fed's April 28-29 decision to hold rates steady at 3.50%-3.75%, despite four dissenting votes for cuts, reinforced a "higher-for-longer" stance amid solid economic expansion. Realistic challenges include weaker-than-forecast April nonfarm payrolls (due May 8) or softer CPI data (May 12), potentially reviving 25 basis point cut odds toward 10%.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Market Opened: Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
Volume
$4,704,961End Date
Jul 29, 2026Market Opened
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors no change in the federal funds rate at the July 29-30, 2026 FOMC meeting, with an implied probability of 90.5% backed by real capital at stake. This strong positioning stems from hotter-than-expected March 2026 CPI inflation at 3.3% year-over-year—the highest since May 2024—and resilient labor markets, evidenced by 178,000 nonfarm payroll additions that month. The Fed's April 28-29 decision to hold rates steady at 3.50%-3.75%, despite four dissenting votes for cuts, reinforced a "higher-for-longer" stance amid solid economic expansion. Realistic challenges include weaker-than-forecast April nonfarm payrolls (due May 8) or softer CPI data (May 12), potentially reviving 25 basis point cut odds toward 10%.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$4,704,961End Date
Jul 29, 2026Market Opened
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors no change in the federal funds rate at the July 29-30, 2026 FOMC meeting, with an implied probability of 90.5% backed by real capital at stake. This strong positioning stems from hotter-than-expected March 2026 CPI inflation at 3.3% year-over-year—the highest since May 2024—and resilient labor markets, evidenced by 178,000 nonfarm payroll additions that month. The Fed's April 28-29 decision to hold rates steady at 3.50%-3.75%, despite four dissenting votes for cuts, reinforced a "higher-for-longer" stance amid solid economic expansion. Realistic challenges include weaker-than-forecast April nonfarm payrolls (due May 8) or softer CPI data (May 12), potentially reviving 25 basis point cut odds toward 10%.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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