Traders assign a 76% probability to no change at the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting because incoming data show inflation remaining above the 2% target amid elevated energy prices tied to Middle East developments. The April FOMC decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75%, combined with updated projections indicating limited easing this year, has reinforced expectations that the Committee will prioritize price stability over near-term adjustments. Recent minutes highlight anchored long-term inflation expectations alongside solid growth and labor market conditions, reducing the case for either a 25 basis point hike or cut. Geopolitical uncertainty continues to support the current consensus that policymakers will await clearer signals before shifting policy.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoNo change 76%
25 bps increase 19%
25 bps decrease 3.0%
50+ bps decrease 2.4%
$178,834 Vol.
$178,834 Vol.
16 set 2026
50+ bps decrease
2%
25 bps decrease
3%
No change
76%
25 bps increase
19%
50+ bps increase
2%
No change 76%
25 bps increase 19%
25 bps decrease 3.0%
50+ bps decrease 2.4%
$178,834 Vol.
$178,834 Vol.
16 set 2026
50+ bps decrease
$36,198 Vol.
2%
25 bps decrease
$34,461 Vol.
3%
No change
$37,230 Vol.
76%
25 bps increase
$37,207 Vol.
19%
50+ bps increase
$33,738 Vol.
2%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Traders assign a 76% probability to no change at the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting because incoming data show inflation remaining above the 2% target amid elevated energy prices tied to Middle East developments. The April FOMC decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75%, combined with updated projections indicating limited easing this year, has reinforced expectations that the Committee will prioritize price stability over near-term adjustments. Recent minutes highlight anchored long-term inflation expectations alongside solid growth and labor market conditions, reducing the case for either a 25 basis point hike or cut. Geopolitical uncertainty continues to support the current consensus that policymakers will await clearer signals before shifting policy.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Mercado Aberto: May 13, 2026, 5:10 PM ET
Volume
$178,834Data de Término
16 set 2026Mercado Aberto
May 13, 2026, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Traders assign a 76% probability to no change at the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting because incoming data show inflation remaining above the 2% target amid elevated energy prices tied to Middle East developments. The April FOMC decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75%, combined with updated projections indicating limited easing this year, has reinforced expectations that the Committee will prioritize price stability over near-term adjustments. Recent minutes highlight anchored long-term inflation expectations alongside solid growth and labor market conditions, reducing the case for either a 25 basis point hike or cut. Geopolitical uncertainty continues to support the current consensus that policymakers will await clearer signals before shifting policy.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$178,834Data de Término
16 set 2026Mercado Aberto
May 13, 2026, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders assign a 76% probability to no change at the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting because incoming data show inflation remaining above the 2% target amid elevated energy prices tied to Middle East developments. The April FOMC decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75%, combined with updated projections indicating limited easing this year, has reinforced expectations that the Committee will prioritize price stability over near-term adjustments. Recent minutes highlight anchored long-term inflation expectations alongside solid growth and labor market conditions, reducing the case for either a 25 basis point hike or cut. Geopolitical uncertainty continues to support the current consensus that policymakers will await clearer signals before shifting policy.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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