Resilient April employment data showing stronger-than-expected job gains and a steady 4.3% unemployment rate, combined with elevated inflation pressures from the Iran conflict-driven surge in energy prices, have anchored trader expectations for steady federal funds rates at the June 16-17, July 28-29, and September 15-16 FOMC meetings. These developments have reinforced the 76% market-implied odds on a Pause–Pause–Pause outcome by highlighting a stable labor market that gives policymakers room to prioritize containing core PCE inflation reacceleration. Analyst forecasts from firms including J.P. Morgan and Goldman Sachs now see the Fed holding the 3.50–3.75% target range through year-end, with the June Summary of Economic Projections serving as the next key catalyst likely to sustain this consensus.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoPause–Pause–Pause 76%
Other 12%
Pause–Pause–Cut 8%
Cut–Pause–Cut 7.0%
NOVO
NOVO
16 set 2026
Cut–Pause–Pause
4%
Cut–Pause–Cut
7%
Cut–Cut–Pause
1%
Cut–Cut–Cut
4%
Pause–Pause–Pause
76%
Pause–Pause–Cut
8%
Pause–Cut–Pause
5%
Pause–Cut–Cut
7%
Other
12%
Pause–Pause–Pause 76%
Other 12%
Pause–Pause–Cut 8%
Cut–Pause–Cut 7.0%
NOVO
NOVO
16 set 2026
Cut–Pause–Pause
$116 Vol.
4%
Cut–Pause–Cut
$122 Vol.
7%
Cut–Cut–Pause
$172 Vol.
1%
Cut–Cut–Cut
$126 Vol.
4%
Pause–Pause–Pause
$375 Vol.
76%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$163 Vol.
8%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$131 Vol.
5%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$122 Vol.
7%
Other
$122 Vol.
12%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmResilient April employment data showing stronger-than-expected job gains and a steady 4.3% unemployment rate, combined with elevated inflation pressures from the Iran conflict-driven surge in energy prices, have anchored trader expectations for steady federal funds rates at the June 16-17, July 28-29, and September 15-16 FOMC meetings. These developments have reinforced the 76% market-implied odds on a Pause–Pause–Pause outcome by highlighting a stable labor market that gives policymakers room to prioritize containing core PCE inflation reacceleration. Analyst forecasts from firms including J.P. Morgan and Goldman Sachs now see the Fed holding the 3.50–3.75% target range through year-end, with the June Summary of Economic Projections serving as the next key catalyst likely to sustain this consensus.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Mercado Aberto: Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
Volume
$1,450Data de Término
16 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmResilient April employment data showing stronger-than-expected job gains and a steady 4.3% unemployment rate, combined with elevated inflation pressures from the Iran conflict-driven surge in energy prices, have anchored trader expectations for steady federal funds rates at the June 16-17, July 28-29, and September 15-16 FOMC meetings. These developments have reinforced the 76% market-implied odds on a Pause–Pause–Pause outcome by highlighting a stable labor market that gives policymakers room to prioritize containing core PCE inflation reacceleration. Analyst forecasts from firms including J.P. Morgan and Goldman Sachs now see the Fed holding the 3.50–3.75% target range through year-end, with the June Summary of Economic Projections serving as the next key catalyst likely to sustain this consensus.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volume
$1,450Data de Término
16 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resilient April employment data showing stronger-than-expected job gains and a steady 4.3% unemployment rate, combined with elevated inflation pressures from the Iran conflict-driven surge in energy prices, have anchored trader expectations for steady federal funds rates at the June 16-17, July 28-29, and September 15-16 FOMC meetings. These developments have reinforced the 76% market-implied odds on a Pause–Pause–Pause outcome by highlighting a stable labor market that gives policymakers room to prioritize containing core PCE inflation reacceleration. Analyst forecasts from firms including J.P. Morgan and Goldman Sachs now see the Fed holding the 3.50–3.75% target range through year-end, with the June Summary of Economic Projections serving as the next key catalyst likely to sustain this consensus.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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