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Economia·Negócios

Quão baixo será o rendimento do Tesouro a 10 anos antes de 2027?

Market icon
Economia·Negócios

Quão baixo será o rendimento do Tesouro a 10 anos antes de 2027?

$180,410 Vol.

31 dez 2026
Polymarket

$180,410 Vol.

Polymarket

3,9%

$28,116 Vol.

65%

3,8%

$26,251 Vol.

49%

3,7%

$20,675 Vol.

35%

3,6%

$4,645 Vol.

28%

3,5%

$29,841 Vol.

19%

3,0%

$0 Vol.

12%

2,0%

$214 Vol.

9%

1,0%

$38,910 Vol.

6%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).Trader consensus on Polymarket prices the 10-year Treasury yield's potential trough before 2027 amid steady U.S. disinflation, with February 2026 CPI holding at 2.4% year-over-year and the Federal Reserve maintaining the federal funds target at 3.5%-3.75% following its March pause. Current yields hover near 4.32%, reflecting balanced risks from persistent shelter inflation and elevated oil prices offsetting labor market softening, as evidenced by recent nonfarm payrolls. Recession probabilities have climbed to 30-48% across Wall Street models, potentially spurring flight-to-safety demand and deeper Fed rate cuts that could pressure yields lower. Key catalysts include March CPI release on April 10 and the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, where dot plot updates may recalibrate the policy path versus market-implied 25-50 basis points of easing by year-end.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Volume
$180,410
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).Trader consensus on Polymarket prices the 10-year Treasury yield's potential trough before 2027 amid steady U.S. disinflation, with February 2026 CPI holding at 2.4% year-over-year and the Federal Reserve maintaining the federal funds target at 3.5%-3.75% following its March pause. Current yields hover near 4.32%, reflecting balanced risks from persistent shelter inflation and elevated oil prices offsetting labor market softening, as evidenced by recent nonfarm payrolls. Recession probabilities have climbed to 30-48% across Wall Street models, potentially spurring flight-to-safety demand and deeper Fed rate cuts that could pressure yields lower. Key catalysts include March CPI release on April 10 and the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, where dot plot updates may recalibrate the policy path versus market-implied 25-50 basis points of easing by year-end.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Volume
$180,410
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Quão baixo será o rendimento do Tesouro a 10 anos antes de 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 9 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "4,0%" at 100%, followed by "3,9%" at 65%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Quão baixo será o rendimento do Tesouro a 10 anos antes de 2027?" has generated $180.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 12, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Quão baixo será o rendimento do Tesouro a 10 anos antes de 2027?," browse the 9 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Quão baixo será o rendimento do Tesouro a 10 anos antes de 2027?" is "4,0%" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "3,9%" at 65%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Quão baixo será o rendimento do Tesouro a 10 anos antes de 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.