Polymarket traders price a 41% implied probability for Gold (GC) active-month futures hitting or exceeding $5,500 on any trading day by June 30, 2026, with 31% odds of dipping to or below $4,200, reflecting caution after spot prices pulled back from January's $5,300 peak to around $4,750 amid fading Federal Reserve rate-cut bets and stronger U.S. dollar. Key drivers include persistent inflation pressures from elevated oil prices tied to Iran conflict uncertainties, robust central bank demand, and real yields; however, March 2026 CPI data due April 10 could shift sentiment ahead of the April 28-29 FOMC meeting. June 16-17 FOMC and May CPI on June 10 loom as pivotal catalysts for volatility in this skin-in-the-game consensus.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoO que o Gold (GC) atingirá__ até o final de junho?
O que o Gold (GC) atingirá__ até o final de junho?
$3,321,049 Vol.
↑ US$ 10.000
1%
↑ US$8.500
2%
↑ $9.000
2%
↑ $8.000
3%
↑ $7.000
3%
↑ US$6.500
5%
↑ $6.200
9%
↑ $6.000
11%
↑ $5.700
21%
↑ $5.500
28%
↓ $4.200
45%
↓ $3.800
13%
↓ $3.400
4%
$3,321,049 Vol.
↑ US$ 10.000
1%
↑ US$8.500
2%
↑ $9.000
2%
↑ $8.000
3%
↑ $7.000
3%
↑ US$6.500
5%
↑ $6.200
9%
↑ $6.000
11%
↑ $5.700
21%
↑ $5.500
28%
↓ $4.200
45%
↓ $3.800
13%
↓ $3.400
4%
For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures.
Mercado Aberto: Jan 29, 2026, 3:49 PM ET
Fonte de resolução
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/metals/precious/gold.settlements.htmlResolver
0x65070BE91...For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures.
Fonte de resolução
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/metals/precious/gold.settlements.htmlResolver
0x65070BE91...Polymarket traders price a 41% implied probability for Gold (GC) active-month futures hitting or exceeding $5,500 on any trading day by June 30, 2026, with 31% odds of dipping to or below $4,200, reflecting caution after spot prices pulled back from January's $5,300 peak to around $4,750 amid fading Federal Reserve rate-cut bets and stronger U.S. dollar. Key drivers include persistent inflation pressures from elevated oil prices tied to Iran conflict uncertainties, robust central bank demand, and real yields; however, March 2026 CPI data due April 10 could shift sentiment ahead of the April 28-29 FOMC meeting. June 16-17 FOMC and May CPI on June 10 loom as pivotal catalysts for volatility in this skin-in-the-game consensus.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions