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icon for Aumento da taxa do Fed em...?

Aumento da taxa do Fed em...?

icon for Aumento da taxa do Fed em...?

Aumento da taxa do Fed em...?

$153,596 Vol.

9 dez 2026
Polymarket

$153,596 Vol.

Polymarket
icon for Reunião de Junho

Reunião de Junho

$15,633 Vol.

1%

icon for Reunião de Julho

Reunião de Julho

$1,710 Vol.

3%

icon for Reunião de Setembro

Reunião de Setembro

$2,400 Vol.

29%

icon for Reunião de Outubro

Reunião de Outubro

$2,545 Vol.

25%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". Emergency rate hikes will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent hotter-than-expected inflation readings, combined with resilient consumer spending and a stable labor market, have shifted market-implied odds toward a potential Federal Reserve rate hike later in 2026 or early 2027. The FOMC held the federal funds target range steady at 3.50–3.75 percent at its April 29 meeting amid elevated uncertainty from Middle East developments, with April minutes released May 20 noting a majority of officials now open to higher rates if price pressures persist. Traders in federal funds futures currently price in roughly even odds for a December move and over 60 percent probability of a 25-basis-point increase by January, reflecting the contrast between the Fed’s 2 percent inflation goal and recent data. The next policy decision arrives at the June 16–17 FOMC meeting, with upcoming CPI and employment reports serving as key inputs for rate path expectations.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".

Emergency rate hikes will qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$153,596
Data de Término
29 out 2026
Mercado Aberto
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". Emergency rate hikes will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". Emergency rate hikes will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent hotter-than-expected inflation readings, combined with resilient consumer spending and a stable labor market, have shifted market-implied odds toward a potential Federal Reserve rate hike later in 2026 or early 2027. The FOMC held the federal funds target range steady at 3.50–3.75 percent at its April 29 meeting amid elevated uncertainty from Middle East developments, with April minutes released May 20 noting a majority of officials now open to higher rates if price pressures persist. Traders in federal funds futures currently price in roughly even odds for a December move and over 60 percent probability of a 25-basis-point increase by January, reflecting the contrast between the Fed’s 2 percent inflation goal and recent data. The next policy decision arrives at the June 16–17 FOMC meeting, with upcoming CPI and employment reports serving as key inputs for rate path expectations.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".

Emergency rate hikes will qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$153,596
Data de Término
29 out 2026
Mercado Aberto
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". Emergency rate hikes will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Aumento da taxa do Fed em...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Reunião de Setembro" at 29%, followed by "Reunião de Outubro" at 25%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 29¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 29% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Aumento da taxa do Fed em...?" has generated $153.6K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 31, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Aumento da taxa do Fed em...?," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Aumento da taxa do Fed em...?" is "Reunião de Setembro" at 29%, meaning the market assigns a 29% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Reunião de Outubro" at 25%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Aumento da taxa do Fed em...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.