Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 80.5% implied probability against a Fed rate hike in 2026, anchored by the March 17-18 FOMC's dot plot projecting a median end-2026 federal funds rate of 3.4%—down from the current 3.50%-3.75% range—reflecting expectations of modest easing amid inflation tracking the 2% target at 2.4% YoY through February CPI. The central bank's decision to hold rates steady for a second meeting, coupled with resilient March nonfarm payrolls adding 178,000 jobs (well above 60,000 consensus), has tempered cut probabilities without signaling overheating to warrant hikes. Key catalysts include March CPI due April 10 amid oil price spikes from geopolitical tensions, and the April 28-29 FOMC, where sustained labor strength could further solidify the no-hike outlook.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoSim
$822,173 Vol.
$822,173 Vol.
Sim
$822,173 Vol.
$822,173 Vol.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 80.5% implied probability against a Fed rate hike in 2026, anchored by the March 17-18 FOMC's dot plot projecting a median end-2026 federal funds rate of 3.4%—down from the current 3.50%-3.75% range—reflecting expectations of modest easing amid inflation tracking the 2% target at 2.4% YoY through February CPI. The central bank's decision to hold rates steady for a second meeting, coupled with resilient March nonfarm payrolls adding 178,000 jobs (well above 60,000 consensus), has tempered cut probabilities without signaling overheating to warrant hikes. Key catalysts include March CPI due April 10 amid oil price spikes from geopolitical tensions, and the April 28-29 FOMC, where sustained labor strength could further solidify the no-hike outlook.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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Cuidado com os links externos.
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