Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 84.5% implied probability to no Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, driven by the FOMC's March 18 decision to hold the federal funds target range steady at 3.5%-3.75% amid stable inflation near the 2% goal—February CPI rose 2.4% year-over-year—and a softening labor market with unemployment at 4.4%. The updated dot plot shows a median expectation of one 25-basis-point cut by year-end, reflecting balanced risks without overheating pressures that would warrant tightening. Key near-term catalysts include the March jobs report due Friday, expected to show modest 60,000 payroll gains, and March CPI on April 10, ahead of the April 28-29 FOMC meeting.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoSim
$799,163 Vol.
$799,163 Vol.
Sim
$799,163 Vol.
$799,163 Vol.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 84.5% implied probability to no Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, driven by the FOMC's March 18 decision to hold the federal funds target range steady at 3.5%-3.75% amid stable inflation near the 2% goal—February CPI rose 2.4% year-over-year—and a softening labor market with unemployment at 4.4%. The updated dot plot shows a median expectation of one 25-basis-point cut by year-end, reflecting balanced risks without overheating pressures that would warrant tightening. Key near-term catalysts include the March jobs report due Friday, expected to show modest 60,000 payroll gains, and March CPI on April 10, ahead of the April 28-29 FOMC meeting.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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