Trader consensus reflects uncertainty over Republican Sen. Thom Tillis's holdout on advancing Kevin Warsh's Fed chair nomination through the Senate Banking Committee, conditioned on resolving a DOJ probe into Jerome Powell. Tillis praised Warsh after a March meeting but insists on probe closure first, stalling hearings amid GOP majority control. With Republicans holding a slim edge, implied probabilities cluster around 51-54 yes votes assuming minimal defections like Tillis or potential skeptics such as Rand Paul, while 60+ anticipates unlikely Democratic crossovers or broader GOP unity. Dems including Elizabeth Warren oppose Warsh outright. A probe resolution or committee hearing could separate outcomes before Powell's May term end.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado54 33.6%
60+ 11%
53 7%
≤49 5.7%
$41,452 Vol.
$41,452 Vol.
31 dez 2026
≤49
6%
50
4%
51
33%
52
6%
53
7%
54
34%
55
7%
56
1%
57
4%
58
4%
59
1%
60+
29%
Sem votação até 31 de dez/Retirado
5%
54 33.6%
60+ 11%
53 7%
≤49 5.7%
$41,452 Vol.
$41,452 Vol.
31 dez 2026
≤49
$0 Vol.
6%
50
$0 Vol.
4%
51
$0 Vol.
33%
52
$0 Vol.
6%
53
$221 Vol.
7%
54
$178 Vol.
34%
55
$0 Vol.
7%
56
$52 Vol.
1%
57
$0 Vol.
4%
58
$0 Vol.
4%
59
$388 Vol.
1%
60+
$40,612 Vol.
29%
Sem votação até 31 de dez/Retirado
$0 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve to the number of senators who vote “Yea” on the first final U.S. Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of the next individual Donald Trump, as President of the United States, formally nominates to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
The vote count refers to the first final confirmation vote on the nomination in the full chamber, not including committee votes or procedural motions.
If the nomination passes unanimously or without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the highest bracket. If the nomination is rejected by vote without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If no qualifying vote is held by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”. If a formally submitted nomination is withdrawn or returned to the President before reaching a final confirmation vote, this market will resolve immediately to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”.
Votes cast by the Vice President, if any, will not be considered for this market.
The resolution sources will be official Senate voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus reflects uncertainty over Republican Sen. Thom Tillis's holdout on advancing Kevin Warsh's Fed chair nomination through the Senate Banking Committee, conditioned on resolving a DOJ probe into Jerome Powell. Tillis praised Warsh after a March meeting but insists on probe closure first, stalling hearings amid GOP majority control. With Republicans holding a slim edge, implied probabilities cluster around 51-54 yes votes assuming minimal defections like Tillis or potential skeptics such as Rand Paul, while 60+ anticipates unlikely Democratic crossovers or broader GOP unity. Dems including Elizabeth Warren oppose Warsh outright. A probe resolution or committee hearing could separate outcomes before Powell's May term end.
This market will resolve to the number of senators who vote “Yea” on the first final U.S. Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of the next individual Donald Trump, as President of the United States, formally nominates to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
The vote count refers to the first final confirmation vote on the nomination in the full chamber, not including committee votes or procedural motions.
If the nomination passes unanimously or without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the highest bracket. If the nomination is rejected by vote without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If no qualifying vote is held by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”. If a formally submitted nomination is withdrawn or returned to the President before reaching a final confirmation vote, this market will resolve immediately to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”.
Votes cast by the Vice President, if any, will not be considered for this market.
The resolution sources will be official Senate voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.
Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
The vote count refers to the first final confirmation vote on the nomination in the full chamber, not including committee votes or procedural motions.
If the nomination passes unanimously or without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the highest bracket. If the nomination is rejected by vote without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If no qualifying vote is held by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”. If a formally submitted nomination is withdrawn or returned to the President before reaching a final confirmation vote, this market will resolve immediately to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”.
Votes cast by the Vice President, if any, will not be considered for this market.
The resolution sources will be official Senate voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Jan 13, 2026, 6:13 PM ET
Volume
$41,452Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 13, 2026, 6:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve to the number of senators who vote “Yea” on the first final U.S. Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of the next individual Donald Trump, as President of the United States, formally nominates to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
The vote count refers to the first final confirmation vote on the nomination in the full chamber, not including committee votes or procedural motions.
If the nomination passes unanimously or without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the highest bracket. If the nomination is rejected by vote without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If no qualifying vote is held by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”. If a formally submitted nomination is withdrawn or returned to the President before reaching a final confirmation vote, this market will resolve immediately to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”.
Votes cast by the Vice President, if any, will not be considered for this market.
The resolution sources will be official Senate voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus reflects uncertainty over Republican Sen. Thom Tillis's holdout on advancing Kevin Warsh's Fed chair nomination through the Senate Banking Committee, conditioned on resolving a DOJ probe into Jerome Powell. Tillis praised Warsh after a March meeting but insists on probe closure first, stalling hearings amid GOP majority control. With Republicans holding a slim edge, implied probabilities cluster around 51-54 yes votes assuming minimal defections like Tillis or potential skeptics such as Rand Paul, while 60+ anticipates unlikely Democratic crossovers or broader GOP unity. Dems including Elizabeth Warren oppose Warsh outright. A probe resolution or committee hearing could separate outcomes before Powell's May term end.
This market will resolve to the number of senators who vote “Yea” on the first final U.S. Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of the next individual Donald Trump, as President of the United States, formally nominates to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
The vote count refers to the first final confirmation vote on the nomination in the full chamber, not including committee votes or procedural motions.
If the nomination passes unanimously or without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the highest bracket. If the nomination is rejected by vote without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If no qualifying vote is held by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”. If a formally submitted nomination is withdrawn or returned to the President before reaching a final confirmation vote, this market will resolve immediately to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”.
Votes cast by the Vice President, if any, will not be considered for this market.
The resolution sources will be official Senate voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.
Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
The vote count refers to the first final confirmation vote on the nomination in the full chamber, not including committee votes or procedural motions.
If the nomination passes unanimously or without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the highest bracket. If the nomination is rejected by vote without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If no qualifying vote is held by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”. If a formally submitted nomination is withdrawn or returned to the President before reaching a final confirmation vote, this market will resolve immediately to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”.
Votes cast by the Vice President, if any, will not be considered for this market.
The resolution sources will be official Senate voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$41,452Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 13, 2026, 6:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus reflects uncertainty over Republican Sen. Thom Tillis's holdout on advancing Kevin Warsh's Fed chair nomination through the Senate Banking Committee, conditioned on resolving a DOJ probe into Jerome Powell. Tillis praised Warsh after a March meeting but insists on probe closure first, stalling hearings amid GOP majority control. With Republicans holding a slim edge, implied probabilities cluster around 51-54 yes votes assuming minimal defections like Tillis or potential skeptics such as Rand Paul, while 60+ anticipates unlikely Democratic crossovers or broader GOP unity. Dems including Elizabeth Warren oppose Warsh outright. A probe resolution or committee hearing could separate outcomes before Powell's May term end.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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