Market icon

As forças dos EUA entram no Irã por...?

Market icon

As forças dos EUA entram no Irã por...?

$102,926,303 Vol.

31 mar 2026
Polymarket

$102,926,303 Vol.

Polymarket

31 de março

$71,747,461 Vol.

<1%

30 de abril

$20,274,696 Vol.

67%

31 de dezembro

$8,847,021 Vol.

77%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count. US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count. Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count. US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count. Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Note: Only US military personnel who deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran for operational purposes (e.g., military, humanitarian, etc.) will qualify. Pilots who are shot down, or other cases in which US military personnel do not deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran, will not qualify.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects elevated risks of US ground forces entering Iran amid an intensifying US-Israel air campaign launched February 28, 2026, which has struck over 12,000 targets including missiles, air defenses, and naval assets, with President Trump stating on April 1 that core objectives near completion but strikes will continue "extremely hard" for two to three weeks. Recent deployments of thousands more Marines, 82nd Airborne paratroopers, and expeditionary units have swelled US troop presence beyond 50,000 in the Middle East, fueling speculation of ground operations to seize uranium sites or islands, despite public polls showing strong opposition to boots on the ground and internal debates like Defense Secretary Hegseth's hawkish stance versus Secretary Rubio's cautions. Iran vows retaliation against any invasion, with no confirmed US entry as of April 3; key catalysts include Trump's forthcoming decisions on escalation amid ongoing airstrikes and Strait of Hormuz threats.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.

US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.

Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$102,926,303
Mercado Aberto
Jan 11, 2026, 3:42 PM ET
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count. US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count. Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Resultado proposto: Não

Contestado

Resultado proposto: Não

Contestado

Revisão final

This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count. US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count. Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count. US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count. Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Note: Only US military personnel who deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran for operational purposes (e.g., military, humanitarian, etc.) will qualify. Pilots who are shot down, or other cases in which US military personnel do not deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran, will not qualify.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects elevated risks of US ground forces entering Iran amid an intensifying US-Israel air campaign launched February 28, 2026, which has struck over 12,000 targets including missiles, air defenses, and naval assets, with President Trump stating on April 1 that core objectives near completion but strikes will continue "extremely hard" for two to three weeks. Recent deployments of thousands more Marines, 82nd Airborne paratroopers, and expeditionary units have swelled US troop presence beyond 50,000 in the Middle East, fueling speculation of ground operations to seize uranium sites or islands, despite public polls showing strong opposition to boots on the ground and internal debates like Defense Secretary Hegseth's hawkish stance versus Secretary Rubio's cautions. Iran vows retaliation against any invasion, with no confirmed US entry as of April 3; key catalysts include Trump's forthcoming decisions on escalation amid ongoing airstrikes and Strait of Hormuz threats.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.

US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.

Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$102,926,303
Mercado Aberto
Jan 11, 2026, 3:42 PM ET
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count. US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count. Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Resultado proposto: Não

Contestado

Resultado proposto: Não

Contestado

Revisão final

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"As forças dos EUA entram no Irã por...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 9 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "31 de dezembro" at 77%, followed by "30 de abril" at 67%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 77¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 77% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "As forças dos EUA entram no Irã por...?" has generated $102.9 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 11, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "As forças dos EUA entram no Irã por...?," browse the 9 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "As forças dos EUA entram no Irã por...?" is "31 de dezembro" at 77%, meaning the market assigns a 77% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "30 de abril" at 67%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "As forças dos EUA entram no Irã por...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.