Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects elevated risks of US ground forces entering Iran amid an intensifying US-Israel air campaign launched February 28, 2026, which has struck over 12,000 targets including missiles, air defenses, and naval assets, with President Trump stating on April 1 that core objectives near completion but strikes will continue "extremely hard" for two to three weeks. Recent deployments of thousands more Marines, 82nd Airborne paratroopers, and expeditionary units have swelled US troop presence beyond 50,000 in the Middle East, fueling speculation of ground operations to seize uranium sites or islands, despite public polls showing strong opposition to boots on the ground and internal debates like Defense Secretary Hegseth's hawkish stance versus Secretary Rubio's cautions. Iran vows retaliation against any invasion, with no confirmed US entry as of April 3; key catalysts include Trump's forthcoming decisions on escalation amid ongoing airstrikes and Strait of Hormuz threats.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoAs forças dos EUA entram no Irã por...?
As forças dos EUA entram no Irã por...?
$102,926,303 Vol.
31 mar 2026
31 de março
<1%
30 de abril
67%
31 de dezembro
77%
$102,926,303 Vol.
31 de março
$71,747,461 Vol.
<1%
30 de abril
$20,274,696 Vol.
67%
31 de dezembro
$8,847,021 Vol.
77%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Only US military personnel who deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran for operational purposes (e.g., military, humanitarian, etc.) will qualify. Pilots who are shot down, or other cases in which US military personnel do not deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran, will not qualify.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects elevated risks of US ground forces entering Iran amid an intensifying US-Israel air campaign launched February 28, 2026, which has struck over 12,000 targets including missiles, air defenses, and naval assets, with President Trump stating on April 1 that core objectives near completion but strikes will continue "extremely hard" for two to three weeks. Recent deployments of thousands more Marines, 82nd Airborne paratroopers, and expeditionary units have swelled US troop presence beyond 50,000 in the Middle East, fueling speculation of ground operations to seize uranium sites or islands, despite public polls showing strong opposition to boots on the ground and internal debates like Defense Secretary Hegseth's hawkish stance versus Secretary Rubio's cautions. Iran vows retaliation against any invasion, with no confirmed US entry as of April 3; key catalysts include Trump's forthcoming decisions on escalation amid ongoing airstrikes and Strait of Hormuz threats.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Jan 11, 2026, 3:42 PM ET
Volume
$102,926,303Mercado Aberto
Jan 11, 2026, 3:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Resultado proposto: Não
Contestado
Resultado proposto: Não
Contestado
Revisão final
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Only US military personnel who deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran for operational purposes (e.g., military, humanitarian, etc.) will qualify. Pilots who are shot down, or other cases in which US military personnel do not deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran, will not qualify.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects elevated risks of US ground forces entering Iran amid an intensifying US-Israel air campaign launched February 28, 2026, which has struck over 12,000 targets including missiles, air defenses, and naval assets, with President Trump stating on April 1 that core objectives near completion but strikes will continue "extremely hard" for two to three weeks. Recent deployments of thousands more Marines, 82nd Airborne paratroopers, and expeditionary units have swelled US troop presence beyond 50,000 in the Middle East, fueling speculation of ground operations to seize uranium sites or islands, despite public polls showing strong opposition to boots on the ground and internal debates like Defense Secretary Hegseth's hawkish stance versus Secretary Rubio's cautions. Iran vows retaliation against any invasion, with no confirmed US entry as of April 3; key catalysts include Trump's forthcoming decisions on escalation amid ongoing airstrikes and Strait of Hormuz threats.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$102,926,303Mercado Aberto
Jan 11, 2026, 3:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Resultado proposto: Não
Contestado
Resultado proposto: Não
Contestado
Revisão final
Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects elevated risks of US ground forces entering Iran amid an intensifying US-Israel air campaign launched February 28, 2026, which has struck over 12,000 targets including missiles, air defenses, and naval assets, with President Trump stating on April 1 that core objectives near completion but strikes will continue "extremely hard" for two to three weeks. Recent deployments of thousands more Marines, 82nd Airborne paratroopers, and expeditionary units have swelled US troop presence beyond 50,000 in the Middle East, fueling speculation of ground operations to seize uranium sites or islands, despite public polls showing strong opposition to boots on the ground and internal debates like Defense Secretary Hegseth's hawkish stance versus Secretary Rubio's cautions. Iran vows retaliation against any invasion, with no confirmed US entry as of April 3; key catalysts include Trump's forthcoming decisions on escalation amid ongoing airstrikes and Strait of Hormuz threats.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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Cuidado com os links externos.
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