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Mundo·Médio Oriente

Líder do Irão no final de 2026?

Market icon
Mundo·Médio Oriente

Líder do Irão no final de 2026?

Mojtaba Khamenei 65.8%

Reza Pahlavi 9%

Masoud Pezeshkian 5.4%

Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf 4.7%

Polymarket

$5,860,695 Vol.

Mojtaba Khamenei 65.8%

Reza Pahlavi 9%

Masoud Pezeshkian 5.4%

Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf 4.7%

Polymarket

$5,860,695 Vol.

Mojtaba Khamenei

$1,150,084 Vol.

66%

Reza Pahlavi

$126,250 Vol.

9%

Masoud Pezeshkian

$236,539 Vol.

5%

Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf

$161,268 Vol.

5%

Hassan Rouhani

$266,253 Vol.

4%

Sem Chefe de Estado

$363,741 Vol.

3%

Hassan Khomeini

$668,731 Vol.

3%

Abbas Araghchi

$92,228 Vol.

1%

Sadegh Larijani

$171,225 Vol.

1%

Alireza Arafi

$770,369 Vol.

1%

Mohammad Khatami

$228,157 Vol.

1%

Maryam Rajavi

$238,433 Vol.

<1%

Muhammad Mirbaqiri

$267,458 Vol.

<1%

Ali Asghar Hejazi

$73,237 Vol.

<1%

Ahmad Vahidi

$190,932 Vol.

<1%

Navid Shomali

$51,334 Vol.

<1%

Saeed Jalili

$41,005 Vol.

<1%

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad

$45,971 Vol.

<1%

Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani

$18,432 Vol.

<1%

Hassan Shariatmadari

$144,435 Vol.

<1%

Massoud Rajavi

$20,067 Vol.

<1%

Seyed Hossein Mousavian

$30,713 Vol.

<1%

Reza Pirzadeh

$25,093 Vol.

<1%

Mustafa Hijri

$16,878 Vol.

<1%

Ali Motahari

$45,171 Vol.

<1%

Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel

$32,908 Vol.

<1%

Mostafa Pourmohammadi

$63,126 Vol.

<1%

Sadegh Mahsouli

$45,185 Vol.

<1%

Mohsen Araki

$25,831 Vol.

<1%

Nasir Hosseini

$12,780 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Trader consensus favors Mojtaba Khamenei at 66% implied probability as Iran's Supreme Leader by end-2026, reflecting his official selection by the Assembly of Experts on March 8 following Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's assassination in a U.S.-Israeli airstrike on February 28, bolstered by recent Iranian Foreign Ministry and Russian statements on April 1-2 affirming his good health amid wartime conditions delaying public appearances. Persistent unconfirmed rumors of his injury in subsequent strikes have not eroded his lead, underscoring Revolutionary Guards' backing for regime continuity. Reza Pahlavi's 8.5% odds stem from his March 28 CPAC address positioning him for potential transitional leadership if war escalates regime instability, while other figures trail amid the ongoing conflict.

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.

Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.

If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.

Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.

Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.

If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Volume
$5,860,695
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Trader consensus favors Mojtaba Khamenei at 66% implied probability as Iran's Supreme Leader by end-2026, reflecting his official selection by the Assembly of Experts on March 8 following Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's assassination in a U.S.-Israeli airstrike on February 28, bolstered by recent Iranian Foreign Ministry and Russian statements on April 1-2 affirming his good health amid wartime conditions delaying public appearances. Persistent unconfirmed rumors of his injury in subsequent strikes have not eroded his lead, underscoring Revolutionary Guards' backing for regime continuity. Reza Pahlavi's 8.5% odds stem from his March 28 CPAC address positioning him for potential transitional leadership if war escalates regime instability, while other figures trail amid the ongoing conflict.

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.

Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.

If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.

Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.

Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.

If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Volume
$5,860,695
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Líder do Irão no final de 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 32 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Mojtaba Khamenei" at 66%, followed by "Reza Pahlavi" at 9%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 66¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 66% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Líder do Irão no final de 2026?" has generated $5.9 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 1, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Líder do Irão no final de 2026?," browse the 32 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Líder do Irão no final de 2026?" is "Mojtaba Khamenei" at 66%, meaning the market assigns a 66% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Reza Pahlavi" at 9%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Líder do Irão no final de 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.