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icon for Algum país expulsará um embaixador dos EUA até 31 de dezembro?
Política·Irão

Algum país expulsará um embaixador dos EUA até 31 de dezembro?

icon for Algum país expulsará um embaixador dos EUA até 31 de dezembro?
Política·Irão

Algum país expulsará um embaixador dos EUA até 31 de dezembro?

dez 31

dez 31

Sim

31% chance
Polymarket

$16,863 Vol.

Sim

31% chance
Polymarket

$16,863 Vol.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify. For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe. Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity. Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used. **No recent expulsions of U.S. ambassadors have occurred amid ongoing diplomatic frictions.** In March 2025 the United States declared South Africa’s envoy persona non grata, but Pretoria has not reciprocated by expelling the U.S. ambassador despite strained ties over policy differences. In early 2026, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney publicly confirmed Ottawa would not expel U.S. Ambassador Pete Hoekstra following tariff and sovereignty-related remarks, prioritizing stable bilateral channels. Broader Trump administration pressure on allies and adversaries—through tariffs, territorial comments, and regional security actions—has produced calls for reciprocal measures in isolated cases, yet governments have avoided crossing the threshold of ambassador expulsion. With the resolution window extending to December 31, 2026, the 68.5% “No” probability reflects trader assessment that states continue to favor maintained diplomatic presence over escalation.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.

For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.

Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.

Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$16,863
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify. For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe. Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity. Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify. For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe. Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity. Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used. **No recent expulsions of U.S. ambassadors have occurred amid ongoing diplomatic frictions.** In March 2025 the United States declared South Africa’s envoy persona non grata, but Pretoria has not reciprocated by expelling the U.S. ambassador despite strained ties over policy differences. In early 2026, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney publicly confirmed Ottawa would not expel U.S. Ambassador Pete Hoekstra following tariff and sovereignty-related remarks, prioritizing stable bilateral channels. Broader Trump administration pressure on allies and adversaries—through tariffs, territorial comments, and regional security actions—has produced calls for reciprocal measures in isolated cases, yet governments have avoided crossing the threshold of ambassador expulsion. With the resolution window extending to December 31, 2026, the 68.5% “No” probability reflects trader assessment that states continue to favor maintained diplomatic presence over escalation.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.

For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.

Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.

Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$16,863
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify. For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe. Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity. Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Algum país expulsará um embaixador dos EUA até 31 de dezembro?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Algum país expulsará um embaixador dos EUA até 31 de dezembro?" at 31%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 31¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 31% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Algum país expulsará um embaixador dos EUA até 31 de dezembro?" has generated $16.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 31, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Algum país expulsará um embaixador dos EUA até 31 de dezembro?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Algum país expulsará um embaixador dos EUA até 31 de dezembro?" is "Algum país expulsará um embaixador dos EUA até 31 de dezembro?" at 31%, meaning the market assigns a 31% chance to that outcome. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Algum país expulsará um embaixador dos EUA até 31 de dezembro?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.