Trader consensus favors Israel striking four countries in 2026 at 38%, with five at 29%, reflecting confirmed airstrikes in Lebanon against Hezbollah, Syria targeting Iranian-linked sites, Yemen hitting Houthi positions, and Iran via the U.S.-Israeli campaign launched February 28 that bombed nuclear facilities, missile defenses, and military infrastructure in Tehran and beyond. Recent Iranian and Houthi ballistic missile barrages on April 1-2 have intensified retaliatory exchanges without introducing a fifth nation, keeping the race tight amid nine months remaining for potential escalation to Iraqi militias or other proxies. Diplomacy stalls and multi-front pressures could add a new target, while de-escalation signals or ceasefires might cap at four.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado4 37.5%
5 29.3%
6 12.6%
3 11.8%
$6,325,621 Vol.
$6,325,621 Vol.
31 dez 2026
3
12%
4
38%
5
29%
6
13%
7
3%
8
2%
9
1%
10
1%
11
1%
12
<1%
13
<1%
14
<1%
15+
<1%
4 37.5%
5 29.3%
6 12.6%
3 11.8%
$6,325,621 Vol.
$6,325,621 Vol.
31 dez 2026
3
$1,892,198 Vol.
12%
4
$1,140,303 Vol.
38%
5
$472,089 Vol.
29%
6
$626,190 Vol.
13%
7
$584,701 Vol.
3%
8
$499,421 Vol.
2%
9
$198,722 Vol.
1%
10
$375,395 Vol.
1%
11
$89,589 Vol.
1%
12
$59,427 Vol.
<1%
13
$130,479 Vol.
<1%
14
$97,367 Vol.
<1%
15+
$34,158 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus favors Israel striking four countries in 2026 at 38%, with five at 29%, reflecting confirmed airstrikes in Lebanon against Hezbollah, Syria targeting Iranian-linked sites, Yemen hitting Houthi positions, and Iran via the U.S.-Israeli campaign launched February 28 that bombed nuclear facilities, missile defenses, and military infrastructure in Tehran and beyond. Recent Iranian and Houthi ballistic missile barrages on April 1-2 have intensified retaliatory exchanges without introducing a fifth nation, keeping the race tight amid nine months remaining for potential escalation to Iraqi militias or other proxies. Diplomacy stalls and multi-front pressures could add a new target, while de-escalation signals or ceasefires might cap at four.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Nov 13, 2025, 10:52 AM ET
Volume
$6,325,621Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Nov 13, 2025, 10:52 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus favors Israel striking four countries in 2026 at 38%, with five at 29%, reflecting confirmed airstrikes in Lebanon against Hezbollah, Syria targeting Iranian-linked sites, Yemen hitting Houthi positions, and Iran via the U.S.-Israeli campaign launched February 28 that bombed nuclear facilities, missile defenses, and military infrastructure in Tehran and beyond. Recent Iranian and Houthi ballistic missile barrages on April 1-2 have intensified retaliatory exchanges without introducing a fifth nation, keeping the race tight amid nine months remaining for potential escalation to Iraqi militias or other proxies. Diplomacy stalls and multi-front pressures could add a new target, while de-escalation signals or ceasefires might cap at four.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$6,325,621Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Nov 13, 2025, 10:52 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus favors Israel striking four countries in 2026 at 38%, with five at 29%, reflecting confirmed airstrikes in Lebanon against Hezbollah, Syria targeting Iranian-linked sites, Yemen hitting Houthi positions, and Iran via the U.S.-Israeli campaign launched February 28 that bombed nuclear facilities, missile defenses, and military infrastructure in Tehran and beyond. Recent Iranian and Houthi ballistic missile barrages on April 1-2 have intensified retaliatory exchanges without introducing a fifth nation, keeping the race tight amid nine months remaining for potential escalation to Iraqi militias or other proxies. Diplomacy stalls and multi-front pressures could add a new target, while de-escalation signals or ceasefires might cap at four.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions