Amid the 2026 Iran war, Iranian IRGC forces re-closed the Strait of Hormuz on April 18 and fired on at least two merchant ships near Oman using gunboats and projectiles, damaging a container vessel in the first confirmed attacks in weeks. This follows a sharp decline in ship strikes since early March's barrage of roughly 21-25 attacks—damaging 16 vessels and sinking one—after U.S. and allied strikes sank over 30 Iranian naval assets, including IRGC speedboats and minelayers, severely curtailing Tehran's maritime threat capacity. Traders price 4-5 successful targets by April 30 at 33% implied probability, reflecting this degradation and fragile ceasefire talks, versus 8-9 (23%) if IRGC stockpiles enable escalation or 2-3 (18%) should U.S. blockades and Trump warnings prompt de-escalation; consolidation behind 4-5 hinges on verified damage from today's action and Gulf shipping avoidance.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoQuantos navios o Irã atingirá com sucesso até 30 de abril?
Quantos navios o Irã atingirá com sucesso até 30 de abril?
4–5 32.1%
8–9 23.0%
2–3 18%
6–7 14.2%
$79,687 Vol.
$79,687 Vol.
30 abr 2026
2–3
18%
4–5
32%
6–7
14%
8–9
23%
10+
13%
4–5 32.1%
8–9 23.0%
2–3 18%
6–7 14.2%
$79,687 Vol.
$79,687 Vol.
30 abr 2026
2–3
$19,812 Vol.
18%
4–5
$16,770 Vol.
32%
6–7
$5,416 Vol.
14%
8–9
$8,289 Vol.
23%
10+
$4,670 Vol.
13%
This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Amid the 2026 Iran war, Iranian IRGC forces re-closed the Strait of Hormuz on April 18 and fired on at least two merchant ships near Oman using gunboats and projectiles, damaging a container vessel in the first confirmed attacks in weeks. This follows a sharp decline in ship strikes since early March's barrage of roughly 21-25 attacks—damaging 16 vessels and sinking one—after U.S. and allied strikes sank over 30 Iranian naval assets, including IRGC speedboats and minelayers, severely curtailing Tehran's maritime threat capacity. Traders price 4-5 successful targets by April 30 at 33% implied probability, reflecting this degradation and fragile ceasefire talks, versus 8-9 (23%) if IRGC stockpiles enable escalation or 2-3 (18%) should U.S. blockades and Trump warnings prompt de-escalation; consolidation behind 4-5 hinges on verified damage from today's action and Gulf shipping avoidance.
This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 24, 2026, 1:08 PM ET
Volume
$79,687Data de Término
30 abr 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 24, 2026, 1:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Amid the 2026 Iran war, Iranian IRGC forces re-closed the Strait of Hormuz on April 18 and fired on at least two merchant ships near Oman using gunboats and projectiles, damaging a container vessel in the first confirmed attacks in weeks. This follows a sharp decline in ship strikes since early March's barrage of roughly 21-25 attacks—damaging 16 vessels and sinking one—after U.S. and allied strikes sank over 30 Iranian naval assets, including IRGC speedboats and minelayers, severely curtailing Tehran's maritime threat capacity. Traders price 4-5 successful targets by April 30 at 33% implied probability, reflecting this degradation and fragile ceasefire talks, versus 8-9 (23%) if IRGC stockpiles enable escalation or 2-3 (18%) should U.S. blockades and Trump warnings prompt de-escalation; consolidation behind 4-5 hinges on verified damage from today's action and Gulf shipping avoidance.
This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$79,687Data de Término
30 abr 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 24, 2026, 1:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Amid the 2026 Iran war, Iranian IRGC forces re-closed the Strait of Hormuz on April 18 and fired on at least two merchant ships near Oman using gunboats and projectiles, damaging a container vessel in the first confirmed attacks in weeks. This follows a sharp decline in ship strikes since early March's barrage of roughly 21-25 attacks—damaging 16 vessels and sinking one—after U.S. and allied strikes sank over 30 Iranian naval assets, including IRGC speedboats and minelayers, severely curtailing Tehran's maritime threat capacity. Traders price 4-5 successful targets by April 30 at 33% implied probability, reflecting this degradation and fragile ceasefire talks, versus 8-9 (23%) if IRGC stockpiles enable escalation or 2-3 (18%) should U.S. blockades and Trump warnings prompt de-escalation; consolidation behind 4-5 hinges on verified damage from today's action and Gulf shipping avoidance.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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