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Geopolítica·Irão

Acordo de paz permanente EUA x Irã por...?

Market icon
Geopolítica·Irão

Acordo de paz permanente EUA x Irã por...?

$16,375,551 Vol.

22 abr 2026
Polymarket

$16,375,551 Vol.

Polymarket

22 de abril

$9,758,667 Vol.

27%

30 de abril

$3,836,290 Vol.

45%

31 de maio

$2,053,434 Vol.

62%

30 de junho

$735,294 Vol.

70%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify. A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met: - The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria. - Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Amid fragile Pakistan-mediated ceasefire in the 2026 Iran war—agreed April 8 after U.S. strikes dismantled key Iranian military assets—traders weigh prospects for a permanent U.S.-Iran peace deal as the two-week truce nears expiration around April 22. Iranian gunboats fired on a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz yesterday, prompting U.S. blockade threats amid stalled Islamabad talks, though delegations convene Monday for direct negotiations on nuclear suspension, sanctions relief, regional security, and reparations. President Trump signals optimism for a comprehensive accord but hints at resuming military action absent progress, with sticking points including Lebanon and Hormuz transit fees heightening risks of escalation or breakdown.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.

A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:

- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.

- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$16,375,551
Data de Término
31 mai 2026
Mercado Aberto
Apr 8, 2026, 12:11 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify. A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met: - The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria. - Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify. A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met: - The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria. - Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Amid fragile Pakistan-mediated ceasefire in the 2026 Iran war—agreed April 8 after U.S. strikes dismantled key Iranian military assets—traders weigh prospects for a permanent U.S.-Iran peace deal as the two-week truce nears expiration around April 22. Iranian gunboats fired on a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz yesterday, prompting U.S. blockade threats amid stalled Islamabad talks, though delegations convene Monday for direct negotiations on nuclear suspension, sanctions relief, regional security, and reparations. President Trump signals optimism for a comprehensive accord but hints at resuming military action absent progress, with sticking points including Lebanon and Hormuz transit fees heightening risks of escalation or breakdown.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.

A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:

- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.

- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$16,375,551
Data de Término
31 mai 2026
Mercado Aberto
Apr 8, 2026, 12:11 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify. A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met: - The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria. - Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Acordo de paz permanente EUA x Irã por...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "30 de junho" at 70%, followed by "31 de maio" at 62%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 70¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 70% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Acordo de paz permanente EUA x Irã por...?" has generated $16.4 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Apr 8, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Acordo de paz permanente EUA x Irã por...?," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Acordo de paz permanente EUA x Irã por...?" is "30 de junho" at 70%, meaning the market assigns a 70% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "31 de maio" at 62%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Acordo de paz permanente EUA x Irã por...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.