Market icon
Política·Mojtaba

A liderança do Irão muda por...?

Market icon
Política·Mojtaba

A liderança do Irão muda por...?

$6,042,270 Vol.

30 abr 2026
Polymarket

$6,042,270 Vol.

Polymarket

30 de abril

$1,639,853 Vol.

10%

31 de maio

$74,767 Vol.

18%

30 de junho

$38,709 Vol.

23%

31 de dezembro

$1,058,019 Vol.

34%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed in U.S.-Israeli strikes in late February 2026, prompting the Assembly of Experts to appoint his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as successor on March 8 amid ongoing regional conflict. This rapid hardliner transition, with Mojtaba's close ties to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, has stabilized regime continuity for now, but his absence from public view since early March—attributed by officials to wartime conditions—has fueled speculation of injuries sustained in initial attacks. Iranian statements as recent as yesterday affirm his full health, while U.S. President Trump suggested four days ago he may be seriously wounded. Traders weigh this uncertainty against escalation risks, diplomatic stalemates, and domestic unrest, with no confirmed catalysts for imminent further change but potential volatility from military developments or IRGC maneuvers through year-end.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.

An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$6,042,270
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Mar 8, 2026, 10:55 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed in U.S.-Israeli strikes in late February 2026, prompting the Assembly of Experts to appoint his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as successor on March 8 amid ongoing regional conflict. This rapid hardliner transition, with Mojtaba's close ties to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, has stabilized regime continuity for now, but his absence from public view since early March—attributed by officials to wartime conditions—has fueled speculation of injuries sustained in initial attacks. Iranian statements as recent as yesterday affirm his full health, while U.S. President Trump suggested four days ago he may be seriously wounded. Traders weigh this uncertainty against escalation risks, diplomatic stalemates, and domestic unrest, with no confirmed catalysts for imminent further change but potential volatility from military developments or IRGC maneuvers through year-end.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.

An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$6,042,270
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Mar 8, 2026, 10:55 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"A liderança do Irão muda por...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "31 de dezembro" at 34%, followed by "30 de junho" at 23%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 34¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 34% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "A liderança do Irão muda por...?" has generated $6 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 9, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "A liderança do Irão muda por...?," browse the 6 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "A liderança do Irão muda por...?" is "31 de dezembro" at 34%, meaning the market assigns a 34% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "30 de junho" at 23%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "A liderança do Irão muda por...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.