Iran's enriched uranium stockpile continues to grow amid stalled diplomatic efforts to revive the 2015 JCPOA nuclear deal, with the latest IAEA report in August 2024 verifying over 164 kg enriched to 60% purity—enough for several nuclear weapons if further processed—prompting a June IAEA Board censure for non-cooperation and new centrifuge installations. Recent military escalations, including Iran's October 1 ballistic missile attack on Israel and Israel's October 26 airstrikes on Iranian military sites, have intensified tensions, diminishing prospects for concessions like stockpile surrender. Indirect U.S.-Iran talks via Oman remain frozen, while upcoming IAEA Board meetings in November and potential U.S. policy shifts following the presidential election could signal de-escalation or further sanctions, though structural barriers and mutual distrust dominate trader assessments.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoIran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?
NEW
$18,994 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
April 30
10%
June 30
25%
December 31
33%
$18,994 Vol.
April 30
$509 Vol.
10%
June 30
$24 Vol.
25%
December 31
$18,461 Vol.
33%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.
To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran's enriched uranium stockpile continues to grow amid stalled diplomatic efforts to revive the 2015 JCPOA nuclear deal, with the latest IAEA report in August 2024 verifying over 164 kg enriched to 60% purity—enough for several nuclear weapons if further processed—prompting a June IAEA Board censure for non-cooperation and new centrifuge installations. Recent military escalations, including Iran's October 1 ballistic missile attack on Israel and Israel's October 26 airstrikes on Iranian military sites, have intensified tensions, diminishing prospects for concessions like stockpile surrender. Indirect U.S.-Iran talks via Oman remain frozen, while upcoming IAEA Board meetings in November and potential U.S. policy shifts following the presidential election could signal de-escalation or further sanctions, though structural barriers and mutual distrust dominate trader assessments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.
To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.
To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 26, 2026, 7:53 PM ET
Volume
$18,994Data de Término
Dec 31, 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 26, 2026, 7:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.
To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran's enriched uranium stockpile continues to grow amid stalled diplomatic efforts to revive the 2015 JCPOA nuclear deal, with the latest IAEA report in August 2024 verifying over 164 kg enriched to 60% purity—enough for several nuclear weapons if further processed—prompting a June IAEA Board censure for non-cooperation and new centrifuge installations. Recent military escalations, including Iran's October 1 ballistic missile attack on Israel and Israel's October 26 airstrikes on Iranian military sites, have intensified tensions, diminishing prospects for concessions like stockpile surrender. Indirect U.S.-Iran talks via Oman remain frozen, while upcoming IAEA Board meetings in November and potential U.S. policy shifts following the presidential election could signal de-escalation or further sanctions, though structural barriers and mutual distrust dominate trader assessments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.
To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.
To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$18,994Data de Término
Dec 31, 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 26, 2026, 7:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran's enriched uranium stockpile continues to grow amid stalled diplomatic efforts to revive the 2015 JCPOA nuclear deal, with the latest IAEA report in August 2024 verifying over 164 kg enriched to 60% purity—enough for several nuclear weapons if further processed—prompting a June IAEA Board censure for non-cooperation and new centrifuge installations. Recent military escalations, including Iran's October 1 ballistic missile attack on Israel and Israel's October 26 airstrikes on Iranian military sites, have intensified tensions, diminishing prospects for concessions like stockpile surrender. Indirect U.S.-Iran talks via Oman remain frozen, while upcoming IAEA Board meetings in November and potential U.S. policy shifts following the presidential election could signal de-escalation or further sanctions, though structural barriers and mutual distrust dominate trader assessments.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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