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Os EUA vão invadir o Irã até 31 de março?

Market icon

Os EUA vão invadir o Irã até 31 de março?

Sim

<1% acaso
Polymarket

$5,665,699 Vol.

Sim

<1% acaso
Polymarket

$5,665,699 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.The March 31 deadline passed without a US ground invasion of Iran, cementing trader consensus at 100% for "No" as the US-Israel air campaign—launched February 28 targeting nuclear sites, missile bases, and Strait of Hormuz naval assets—continues to degrade Iranian capabilities without boots on the ground. Recent Pentagon deployments exceeding 50,000 troops in the region, including Marine Expeditionary Units, positioned for potential escalation, but President Trump's March 31 statement signaling war's end in two-to-three weeks and a rejected 15-point US ceasefire plan via Pakistan reflect de-escalation signals amid high ground war costs. Defense Secretary Hegseth deemed coming days "decisive" yet ruled nothing out, though historical base rates post-Iraq deter invasion. Resolution hinges on verified absence of US troop entry; unlikely shifts from covert ops disclosures or reclassification.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Volume
$5,665,699
Data de Término
31 mar 2026
Mercado Aberto
Feb 18, 2026, 5:34 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

Resultado proposto: Não

Sem contestação

Resultado final: Não

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.The March 31 deadline passed without a US ground invasion of Iran, cementing trader consensus at 100% for "No" as the US-Israel air campaign—launched February 28 targeting nuclear sites, missile bases, and Strait of Hormuz naval assets—continues to degrade Iranian capabilities without boots on the ground. Recent Pentagon deployments exceeding 50,000 troops in the region, including Marine Expeditionary Units, positioned for potential escalation, but President Trump's March 31 statement signaling war's end in two-to-three weeks and a rejected 15-point US ceasefire plan via Pakistan reflect de-escalation signals amid high ground war costs. Defense Secretary Hegseth deemed coming days "decisive" yet ruled nothing out, though historical base rates post-Iraq deter invasion. Resolution hinges on verified absence of US troop entry; unlikely shifts from covert ops disclosures or reclassification.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Volume
$5,665,699
Data de Término
31 mar 2026
Mercado Aberto
Feb 18, 2026, 5:34 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

Resultado proposto: Não

Sem contestação

Resultado final: Não

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Os EUA vão invadir o Irã até 31 de março?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Os EUA irão invadir o Irã até 31 de março?" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 0¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 0% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Os EUA vão invadir o Irã até 31 de março?" has generated $5.7 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 18, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Os EUA vão invadir o Irã até 31 de março?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "Os EUA vão invadir o Irã até 31 de março?" is "Os EUA irão invadir o Irã até 31 de março?" at just 0%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "Os EUA vão invadir o Irã até 31 de março?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.