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Política·Trump

O terminal de petróleo da Ilha Kharg será atingido por...?

Market icon
Política·Trump

O terminal de petróleo da Ilha Kharg será atingido por...?

mar 31

mar 31

$857,537 Vol.

15 abr 2026
Polymarket

$857,537 Vol.

Polymarket
Market icon

15 de abril

$58,551 Vol.

23%

Market icon

30 de abril

$48,691 Vol.

30%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kharg Island oil terminal is the subject of a kinetic strike by April 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Qualifying strikes occurring on or after February 28 ET will count even if they occurred before market creation. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kharg Island oil terminal is the subject of a kinetic strike by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Qualifying strikes occurring on or after February 28 ET will count even if they occurred before market creation. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kharg Island oil terminal is the subject of a kinetic strike between February 28 and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Qualifying strikes occurring on or after February 28 ET will count even if they occurred before market creation. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.US airstrikes on March 14 targeted military sites on Kharg Island, Iran's critical oil export hub handling over 90% of its crude, amid the ongoing US-Israel-Iran conflict sparked by late February attacks, but spared the terminal infrastructure itself despite explosions at nearby air defenses and naval facilities. President Trump has intensified threats in late March to seize or obliterate the island unless Tehran reopens the Strait of Hormuz and agrees to a ceasefire, rejected by Iranian officials demanding sovereignty recognition. No kinetic strikes on the terminal reported since, though oil prices surge on fears of escalation; traders watch for diplomatic summits or Marine deployments that could trigger resolution-defining action before April deadlines.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kharg Island oil terminal is the subject of a kinetic strike by April 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Qualifying strikes occurring on or after February 28 ET will count even if they occurred before market creation.

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$857,537
Data de Término
31 mar 2026
Mercado Aberto
Mar 30, 2026, 6:31 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kharg Island oil terminal is the subject of a kinetic strike by April 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Qualifying strikes occurring on or after February 28 ET will count even if they occurred before market creation. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kharg Island oil terminal is the subject of a kinetic strike by April 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Qualifying strikes occurring on or after February 28 ET will count even if they occurred before market creation. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kharg Island oil terminal is the subject of a kinetic strike by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Qualifying strikes occurring on or after February 28 ET will count even if they occurred before market creation. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kharg Island oil terminal is the subject of a kinetic strike between February 28 and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Qualifying strikes occurring on or after February 28 ET will count even if they occurred before market creation. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.US airstrikes on March 14 targeted military sites on Kharg Island, Iran's critical oil export hub handling over 90% of its crude, amid the ongoing US-Israel-Iran conflict sparked by late February attacks, but spared the terminal infrastructure itself despite explosions at nearby air defenses and naval facilities. President Trump has intensified threats in late March to seize or obliterate the island unless Tehran reopens the Strait of Hormuz and agrees to a ceasefire, rejected by Iranian officials demanding sovereignty recognition. No kinetic strikes on the terminal reported since, though oil prices surge on fears of escalation; traders watch for diplomatic summits or Marine deployments that could trigger resolution-defining action before April deadlines.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kharg Island oil terminal is the subject of a kinetic strike by April 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Qualifying strikes occurring on or after February 28 ET will count even if they occurred before market creation.

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$857,537
Data de Término
31 mar 2026
Mercado Aberto
Mar 30, 2026, 6:31 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kharg Island oil terminal is the subject of a kinetic strike by April 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Qualifying strikes occurring on or after February 28 ET will count even if they occurred before market creation. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"O terminal de petróleo da Ilha Kharg será atingido por...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 3 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "30 de abril" at 30%, followed by "15 de abril" at 23%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 30¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 30% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "O terminal de petróleo da Ilha Kharg será atingido por...?" has generated $857.5K in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 28, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "O terminal de petróleo da Ilha Kharg será atingido por...?," browse the 3 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "O terminal de petróleo da Ilha Kharg será atingido por...?" is "30 de abril" at 30%, meaning the market assigns a 30% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "15 de abril" at 23%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "O terminal de petróleo da Ilha Kharg será atingido por...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.