Market icon
Mundo·Presidência Trump

Os EUA declararão oficialmente guerra ao Irã até...?

Market icon
Mundo·Presidência Trump

Os EUA declararão oficialmente guerra ao Irã até...?

dez 31

dez 31

$5,186,715 Vol.

30 abr 2026
Polymarket

$5,186,715 Vol.

Polymarket

30 de abril

$307,579 Vol.

1%

31 de dezembro

$327,978 Vol.

8%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law. The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.President Trump asserted in an April 2 national address that U.S. military objectives against Iran—launched via airstrikes on February 28 targeting missiles, navy assets, and proxies alongside Israel—are nearing completion after five weeks, without any formal congressional declaration of war under Article I of the Constitution. Ongoing U.S. Central Command strikes continue amid Iranian retaliatory attacks on Israel and Gulf states, fueling Strait of Hormuz tensions ahead of a UN Security Council vote on naval actions. Congressional war powers debates intensify, with bipartisan resolutions seeking to curb executive military authority, reflecting trader consensus that declaration remains unlikely as objectives advance via existing authorizations.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.

The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$5,186,715
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Mar 24, 2026, 2:56 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law. The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law. The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.President Trump asserted in an April 2 national address that U.S. military objectives against Iran—launched via airstrikes on February 28 targeting missiles, navy assets, and proxies alongside Israel—are nearing completion after five weeks, without any formal congressional declaration of war under Article I of the Constitution. Ongoing U.S. Central Command strikes continue amid Iranian retaliatory attacks on Israel and Gulf states, fueling Strait of Hormuz tensions ahead of a UN Security Council vote on naval actions. Congressional war powers debates intensify, with bipartisan resolutions seeking to curb executive military authority, reflecting trader consensus that declaration remains unlikely as objectives advance via existing authorizations.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.

The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$5,186,715
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Mar 24, 2026, 2:56 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law. The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Os EUA declararão oficialmente guerra ao Irã até...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 3 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "31 de dezembro" at 8%, followed by "30 de abril" at 1%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 8¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 8% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Os EUA declararão oficialmente guerra ao Irã até...?" has generated $5.2 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 12, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Os EUA declararão oficialmente guerra ao Irã até...?," browse the 3 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "Os EUA declararão oficialmente guerra ao Irã até...?" is "31 de dezembro" at just 8%, with "30 de abril" close behind at 1%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "Os EUA declararão oficialmente guerra ao Irã até...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.