Trader consensus heavily favors the Iranian regime's survival through June 30 at 88.5% implied probability for "No," driven by U.S. intelligence assessments confirming the government's intact structure despite a month of U.S.-Israeli airstrikes that have degraded Iran's missile arsenals, navy, and proxy networks since late February. Recent reports from March 31 highlight Tehran's continued threats against Gulf infrastructure, signaling operational resilience, while President Trump's April 2 statement pledged intensified strikes for 2-3 more weeks without indicating imminent collapse. Earlier January protests were suppressed with security forces remaining loyal, and no fresh unrest or military desertions have emerged amid economic crackdowns, underscoring structural continuity under the Supreme Leader's office and IRGC amid de-escalation pressures.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoO regime iraniano cairá até 30 de junho?
O regime iraniano cairá até 30 de junho?
Sim
$25,061,885 Vol.
$25,061,885 Vol.
30 jun 2026
Sim
$25,061,885 Vol.
$25,061,885 Vol.
30 jun 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus heavily favors the Iranian regime's survival through June 30 at 88.5% implied probability for "No," driven by U.S. intelligence assessments confirming the government's intact structure despite a month of U.S.-Israeli airstrikes that have degraded Iran's missile arsenals, navy, and proxy networks since late February. Recent reports from March 31 highlight Tehran's continued threats against Gulf infrastructure, signaling operational resilience, while President Trump's April 2 statement pledged intensified strikes for 2-3 more weeks without indicating imminent collapse. Earlier January protests were suppressed with security forces remaining loyal, and no fresh unrest or military desertions have emerged amid economic crackdowns, underscoring structural continuity under the Supreme Leader's office and IRGC amid de-escalation pressures.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Dec 17, 2025, 6:00 PM ET
Volume
$25,061,885Data de Término
30 jun 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 17, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus heavily favors the Iranian regime's survival through June 30 at 88.5% implied probability for "No," driven by U.S. intelligence assessments confirming the government's intact structure despite a month of U.S.-Israeli airstrikes that have degraded Iran's missile arsenals, navy, and proxy networks since late February. Recent reports from March 31 highlight Tehran's continued threats against Gulf infrastructure, signaling operational resilience, while President Trump's April 2 statement pledged intensified strikes for 2-3 more weeks without indicating imminent collapse. Earlier January protests were suppressed with security forces remaining loyal, and no fresh unrest or military desertions have emerged amid economic crackdowns, underscoring structural continuity under the Supreme Leader's office and IRGC amid de-escalation pressures.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$25,061,885Data de Término
30 jun 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 17, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus heavily favors the Iranian regime's survival through June 30 at 88.5% implied probability for "No," driven by U.S. intelligence assessments confirming the government's intact structure despite a month of U.S.-Israeli airstrikes that have degraded Iran's missile arsenals, navy, and proxy networks since late February. Recent reports from March 31 highlight Tehran's continued threats against Gulf infrastructure, signaling operational resilience, while President Trump's April 2 statement pledged intensified strikes for 2-3 more weeks without indicating imminent collapse. Earlier January protests were suppressed with security forces remaining loyal, and no fresh unrest or military desertions have emerged amid economic crackdowns, underscoring structural continuity under the Supreme Leader's office and IRGC amid de-escalation pressures.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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