Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for "No" on Strait of Hormuz traffic normalizing by April 30, 2026, driven by verified shipping data showing transit volumes collapsed over 90% year-over-year amid the US-Iran standoff. Kpler and AIS-derived metrics confirmed just a trickle of 3–7 vessels daily versus the pre-crisis norm of 140+, with oil flows plummeting from 20 million barrels per day to under 2 million b/d through late April, per IMF Portwatch 7-day moving averages. Persistent blockades, ship attacks, and elevated insurance risks cemented this skin-in-the-game verdict post-deadline. Tail risks include an improbable diplomatic breakthrough or data revisions, though geopolitical deadlock renders normalization scenarios negligible.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoSim
$38,005,859 Vol.
$38,005,859 Vol.
30 abr 2026
Sim
$38,005,859 Vol.
$38,005,859 Vol.
30 abr 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for "No" on Strait of Hormuz traffic normalizing by April 30, 2026, driven by verified shipping data showing transit volumes collapsed over 90% year-over-year amid the US-Iran standoff. Kpler and AIS-derived metrics confirmed just a trickle of 3–7 vessels daily versus the pre-crisis norm of 140+, with oil flows plummeting from 20 million barrels per day to under 2 million b/d through late April, per IMF Portwatch 7-day moving averages. Persistent blockades, ship attacks, and elevated insurance risks cemented this skin-in-the-game verdict post-deadline. Tail risks include an improbable diplomatic breakthrough or data revisions, though geopolitical deadlock renders normalization scenarios negligible.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 9, 2026, 2:01 PM ET
Volume
$38,005,859Data de Término
30 abr 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 9, 2026, 2:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Resultado proposto: Não
Sem contestação
Resultado final: Não
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for "No" on Strait of Hormuz traffic normalizing by April 30, 2026, driven by verified shipping data showing transit volumes collapsed over 90% year-over-year amid the US-Iran standoff. Kpler and AIS-derived metrics confirmed just a trickle of 3–7 vessels daily versus the pre-crisis norm of 140+, with oil flows plummeting from 20 million barrels per day to under 2 million b/d through late April, per IMF Portwatch 7-day moving averages. Persistent blockades, ship attacks, and elevated insurance risks cemented this skin-in-the-game verdict post-deadline. Tail risks include an improbable diplomatic breakthrough or data revisions, though geopolitical deadlock renders normalization scenarios negligible.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volume
$38,005,859Data de Término
30 abr 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 9, 2026, 2:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Resultado proposto: Não
Sem contestação
Resultado final: Não
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for "No" on Strait of Hormuz traffic normalizing by April 30, 2026, driven by verified shipping data showing transit volumes collapsed over 90% year-over-year amid the US-Iran standoff. Kpler and AIS-derived metrics confirmed just a trickle of 3–7 vessels daily versus the pre-crisis norm of 140+, with oil flows plummeting from 20 million barrels per day to under 2 million b/d through late April, per IMF Portwatch 7-day moving averages. Persistent blockades, ship attacks, and elevated insurance risks cemented this skin-in-the-game verdict post-deadline. Tail risks include an improbable diplomatic breakthrough or data revisions, though geopolitical deadlock renders normalization scenarios negligible.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions