Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 90% implied probability to "No" for Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by April 30, driven by entrenched disruptions from the US-Iran war escalating since late February 2026. MarineTraffic data reveals transits at under 1% of pre-crisis norms—roughly 60 vessels daily—with loitering clusters, holding patterns, and rerouting prevalent amid soaring war-risk insurance premia and vessel owner caution. April 1-2 updates confirm minimal flows, limited to sporadic sanctioned tankers in Omani waters, as Iranian threats and attacks sustain the effective partial closure. Upcoming catalysts include Iran-Oman monitoring protocols and any de-escalation signals, though global leaders view normalization as unrealistic given oil supply shock risks and chain reactions in commodity trade.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoSim
$2,385,336 Vol.
$2,385,336 Vol.
30 abr 2026
Sim
$2,385,336 Vol.
$2,385,336 Vol.
30 abr 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 90% implied probability to "No" for Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by April 30, driven by entrenched disruptions from the US-Iran war escalating since late February 2026. MarineTraffic data reveals transits at under 1% of pre-crisis norms—roughly 60 vessels daily—with loitering clusters, holding patterns, and rerouting prevalent amid soaring war-risk insurance premia and vessel owner caution. April 1-2 updates confirm minimal flows, limited to sporadic sanctioned tankers in Omani waters, as Iranian threats and attacks sustain the effective partial closure. Upcoming catalysts include Iran-Oman monitoring protocols and any de-escalation signals, though global leaders view normalization as unrealistic given oil supply shock risks and chain reactions in commodity trade.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 9, 2026, 2:01 PM ET
Volume
$2,385,336Data de Término
30 abr 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 9, 2026, 2:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 90% implied probability to "No" for Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by April 30, driven by entrenched disruptions from the US-Iran war escalating since late February 2026. MarineTraffic data reveals transits at under 1% of pre-crisis norms—roughly 60 vessels daily—with loitering clusters, holding patterns, and rerouting prevalent amid soaring war-risk insurance premia and vessel owner caution. April 1-2 updates confirm minimal flows, limited to sporadic sanctioned tankers in Omani waters, as Iranian threats and attacks sustain the effective partial closure. Upcoming catalysts include Iran-Oman monitoring protocols and any de-escalation signals, though global leaders view normalization as unrealistic given oil supply shock risks and chain reactions in commodity trade.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volume
$2,385,336Data de Término
30 abr 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 9, 2026, 2:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 90% implied probability to "No" for Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by April 30, driven by entrenched disruptions from the US-Iran war escalating since late February 2026. MarineTraffic data reveals transits at under 1% of pre-crisis norms—roughly 60 vessels daily—with loitering clusters, holding patterns, and rerouting prevalent amid soaring war-risk insurance premia and vessel owner caution. April 1-2 updates confirm minimal flows, limited to sporadic sanctioned tankers in Omani waters, as Iranian threats and attacks sustain the effective partial closure. Upcoming catalysts include Iran-Oman monitoring protocols and any de-escalation signals, though global leaders view normalization as unrealistic given oil supply shock risks and chain reactions in commodity trade.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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