Trader consensus implies an 82.5% probability the Iranian regime will endure past 2026, reflecting its proven resilience despite acute pressures. Nationwide protests peaking in January 2026—fueled by economic collapse, rial devaluation, and deadly repression claiming at least 35 lives—were suppressed by IRGC forces, preventing widespread defections or institutional fracture. The 2026 Iran war, including US-Israeli airstrikes killing thousands and a Strait of Hormuz blockade, weakened military capabilities but appears to have unified hardliners against external foes, echoing historical patterns where conflicts bolster authoritarian cohesion. Absent elite splits or mass uprisings, recent stability amid ongoing sanctions underpins low odds of regime change before 2027.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoSim
$17,598,576 Vol.
$17,598,576 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Sim
$17,598,576 Vol.
$17,598,576 Vol.
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus implies an 82.5% probability the Iranian regime will endure past 2026, reflecting its proven resilience despite acute pressures. Nationwide protests peaking in January 2026—fueled by economic collapse, rial devaluation, and deadly repression claiming at least 35 lives—were suppressed by IRGC forces, preventing widespread defections or institutional fracture. The 2026 Iran war, including US-Israeli airstrikes killing thousands and a Strait of Hormuz blockade, weakened military capabilities but appears to have unified hardliners against external foes, echoing historical patterns where conflicts bolster authoritarian cohesion. Absent elite splits or mass uprisings, recent stability amid ongoing sanctions underpins low odds of regime change before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ET
Volume
$17,598,576Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus implies an 82.5% probability the Iranian regime will endure past 2026, reflecting its proven resilience despite acute pressures. Nationwide protests peaking in January 2026—fueled by economic collapse, rial devaluation, and deadly repression claiming at least 35 lives—were suppressed by IRGC forces, preventing widespread defections or institutional fracture. The 2026 Iran war, including US-Israeli airstrikes killing thousands and a Strait of Hormuz blockade, weakened military capabilities but appears to have unified hardliners against external foes, echoing historical patterns where conflicts bolster authoritarian cohesion. Absent elite splits or mass uprisings, recent stability amid ongoing sanctions underpins low odds of regime change before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$17,598,576Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus implies an 82.5% probability the Iranian regime will endure past 2026, reflecting its proven resilience despite acute pressures. Nationwide protests peaking in January 2026—fueled by economic collapse, rial devaluation, and deadly repression claiming at least 35 lives—were suppressed by IRGC forces, preventing widespread defections or institutional fracture. The 2026 Iran war, including US-Israeli airstrikes killing thousands and a Strait of Hormuz blockade, weakened military capabilities but appears to have unified hardliners against external foes, echoing historical patterns where conflicts bolster authoritarian cohesion. Absent elite splits or mass uprisings, recent stability amid ongoing sanctions underpins low odds of regime change before 2027.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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