Trader consensus prices a 75.5% chance the Iranian regime will endure until 2027, reflecting its demonstrated resilience amid severe pressures from the ongoing US-Israeli military campaign launched February 28, 2026. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's assassination in initial strikes triggered a swift, if contested, succession by his son Mojtaba via the Assembly of Experts in early March, despite unconfirmed reports of the new leader's injuries and limited public appearances. Nationwide protests from late 2025 into January 2026, fueled by economic collapse fears and wartime losses, have been met with intensified crackdowns, executions of detainees, and IRGC deployments to protest hotspots as of late March. No verified mass defections or institutional fractures have emerged, underscoring the regime's coercive apparatus and historical endurance against sanctions, uprisings, and external threats, though prolonged conflict or leadership vacuum could still shift dynamics.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoSim
$12,917,960 Vol.
$12,917,960 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Sim
$12,917,960 Vol.
$12,917,960 Vol.
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus prices a 75.5% chance the Iranian regime will endure until 2027, reflecting its demonstrated resilience amid severe pressures from the ongoing US-Israeli military campaign launched February 28, 2026. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's assassination in initial strikes triggered a swift, if contested, succession by his son Mojtaba via the Assembly of Experts in early March, despite unconfirmed reports of the new leader's injuries and limited public appearances. Nationwide protests from late 2025 into January 2026, fueled by economic collapse fears and wartime losses, have been met with intensified crackdowns, executions of detainees, and IRGC deployments to protest hotspots as of late March. No verified mass defections or institutional fractures have emerged, underscoring the regime's coercive apparatus and historical endurance against sanctions, uprisings, and external threats, though prolonged conflict or leadership vacuum could still shift dynamics.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ET
Volume
$12,917,960Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus prices a 75.5% chance the Iranian regime will endure until 2027, reflecting its demonstrated resilience amid severe pressures from the ongoing US-Israeli military campaign launched February 28, 2026. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's assassination in initial strikes triggered a swift, if contested, succession by his son Mojtaba via the Assembly of Experts in early March, despite unconfirmed reports of the new leader's injuries and limited public appearances. Nationwide protests from late 2025 into January 2026, fueled by economic collapse fears and wartime losses, have been met with intensified crackdowns, executions of detainees, and IRGC deployments to protest hotspots as of late March. No verified mass defections or institutional fractures have emerged, underscoring the regime's coercive apparatus and historical endurance against sanctions, uprisings, and external threats, though prolonged conflict or leadership vacuum could still shift dynamics.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$12,917,965Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices a 75.5% chance the Iranian regime will endure until 2027, reflecting its demonstrated resilience amid severe pressures from the ongoing US-Israeli military campaign launched February 28, 2026. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's assassination in initial strikes triggered a swift, if contested, succession by his son Mojtaba via the Assembly of Experts in early March, despite unconfirmed reports of the new leader's injuries and limited public appearances. Nationwide protests from late 2025 into January 2026, fueled by economic collapse fears and wartime losses, have been met with intensified crackdowns, executions of detainees, and IRGC deployments to protest hotspots as of late March. No verified mass defections or institutional fractures have emerged, underscoring the regime's coercive apparatus and historical endurance against sanctions, uprisings, and external threats, though prolonged conflict or leadership vacuum could still shift dynamics.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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