Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 95.5% implied probability for a US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30, driven by recent US and Israeli airstrikes that have crippled key Iranian nuclear facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Esfahan since late February 2026, effectively delaying Tehran's breakout timeline without diplomatic concessions. President Trump's April 1 national address declared US war aims achieved—preventing nuclear weapon development and weakening the regime—signaling imminent troop withdrawal in two to three weeks regardless of negotiations, amid stalled indirect talks via Oman that ended without breakthroughs in February. Ongoing Strait of Hormuz tensions and minimal sanctions relief offers underscore irreconcilable demands on zero enrichment and facility dismantlement. Realistic shifts could stem from an unlikely Iranian capitulation, surprise ceasefire incorporating nuclear curbs, or IAEA-verified de-escalation, though military dominance has eroded deal incentives.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoAcordo nuclear EUA-Irã até 30 de abril?
Acordo nuclear EUA-Irã até 30 de abril?
Sim
$233,215 Vol.
$233,215 Vol.
30 abr 2026
Sim
$233,215 Vol.
$233,215 Vol.
30 abr 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 95.5% implied probability for a US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30, driven by recent US and Israeli airstrikes that have crippled key Iranian nuclear facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Esfahan since late February 2026, effectively delaying Tehran's breakout timeline without diplomatic concessions. President Trump's April 1 national address declared US war aims achieved—preventing nuclear weapon development and weakening the regime—signaling imminent troop withdrawal in two to three weeks regardless of negotiations, amid stalled indirect talks via Oman that ended without breakthroughs in February. Ongoing Strait of Hormuz tensions and minimal sanctions relief offers underscore irreconcilable demands on zero enrichment and facility dismantlement. Realistic shifts could stem from an unlikely Iranian capitulation, surprise ceasefire incorporating nuclear curbs, or IAEA-verified de-escalation, though military dominance has eroded deal incentives.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 9, 2026, 4:56 PM ET
Volume
$233,215Data de Término
30 abr 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 9, 2026, 4:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 95.5% implied probability for a US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30, driven by recent US and Israeli airstrikes that have crippled key Iranian nuclear facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Esfahan since late February 2026, effectively delaying Tehran's breakout timeline without diplomatic concessions. President Trump's April 1 national address declared US war aims achieved—preventing nuclear weapon development and weakening the regime—signaling imminent troop withdrawal in two to three weeks regardless of negotiations, amid stalled indirect talks via Oman that ended without breakthroughs in February. Ongoing Strait of Hormuz tensions and minimal sanctions relief offers underscore irreconcilable demands on zero enrichment and facility dismantlement. Realistic shifts could stem from an unlikely Iranian capitulation, surprise ceasefire incorporating nuclear curbs, or IAEA-verified de-escalation, though military dominance has eroded deal incentives.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Volume
$233,215Data de Término
30 abr 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 9, 2026, 4:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 95.5% implied probability for a US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30, driven by recent US and Israeli airstrikes that have crippled key Iranian nuclear facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Esfahan since late February 2026, effectively delaying Tehran's breakout timeline without diplomatic concessions. President Trump's April 1 national address declared US war aims achieved—preventing nuclear weapon development and weakening the regime—signaling imminent troop withdrawal in two to three weeks regardless of negotiations, amid stalled indirect talks via Oman that ended without breakthroughs in February. Ongoing Strait of Hormuz tensions and minimal sanctions relief offers underscore irreconcilable demands on zero enrichment and facility dismantlement. Realistic shifts could stem from an unlikely Iranian capitulation, surprise ceasefire incorporating nuclear curbs, or IAEA-verified de-escalation, though military dominance has eroded deal incentives.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
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