Trader consensus favors no US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027 at 61.5%, driven by stalled indirect negotiations amid an escalating military conflict that began in late February 2026 with US airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites and leadership. President Trump's April 1 address warned of "extremely hard" hits over the next two-to-three weeks to enforce core objectives—zero uranium enrichment, decommissioning of Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan facilities, missile caps, proxy funding cuts like Hezbollah and Houthis, and Strait of Hormuz reopening—while Iran demands reparations, security guarantees, and domestic enrichment rights. Mediators including Qatar, Egypt, and Pakistan relay irreconcilable positions, with no direct talks despite signals of flexibility, leaving significant barriers despite eight months until resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoSim
$472,779 Vol.
$472,779 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Sim
$472,779 Vol.
$472,779 Vol.
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Trader consensus favors no US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027 at 61.5%, driven by stalled indirect negotiations amid an escalating military conflict that began in late February 2026 with US airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites and leadership. President Trump's April 1 address warned of "extremely hard" hits over the next two-to-three weeks to enforce core objectives—zero uranium enrichment, decommissioning of Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan facilities, missile caps, proxy funding cuts like Hezbollah and Houthis, and Strait of Hormuz reopening—while Iran demands reparations, security guarantees, and domestic enrichment rights. Mediators including Qatar, Egypt, and Pakistan relay irreconcilable positions, with no direct talks despite signals of flexibility, leaving significant barriers despite eight months until resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Mercado Aberto: Nov 5, 2025, 11:47 AM ET
Volume
$472,779Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Nov 5, 2025, 11:47 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Trader consensus favors no US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027 at 61.5%, driven by stalled indirect negotiations amid an escalating military conflict that began in late February 2026 with US airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites and leadership. President Trump's April 1 address warned of "extremely hard" hits over the next two-to-three weeks to enforce core objectives—zero uranium enrichment, decommissioning of Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan facilities, missile caps, proxy funding cuts like Hezbollah and Houthis, and Strait of Hormuz reopening—while Iran demands reparations, security guarantees, and domestic enrichment rights. Mediators including Qatar, Egypt, and Pakistan relay irreconcilable positions, with no direct talks despite signals of flexibility, leaving significant barriers despite eight months until resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Volume
$472,779Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Nov 5, 2025, 11:47 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus favors no US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027 at 61.5%, driven by stalled indirect negotiations amid an escalating military conflict that began in late February 2026 with US airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites and leadership. President Trump's April 1 address warned of "extremely hard" hits over the next two-to-three weeks to enforce core objectives—zero uranium enrichment, decommissioning of Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan facilities, missile caps, proxy funding cuts like Hezbollah and Houthis, and Strait of Hormuz reopening—while Iran demands reparations, security guarantees, and domestic enrichment rights. Mediators including Qatar, Egypt, and Pakistan relay irreconcilable positions, with no direct talks despite signals of flexibility, leaving significant barriers despite eight months until resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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