Trader consensus prices an 88% chance against Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by June 30, reflecting stalled indirect US-Iran nuclear negotiations amid ongoing military conflict. February Geneva talks mediated by Oman saw Iran offer temporary suspension to 3.67% purity and zero stockpiling but firmly reject permanent cessation or stockpile transfer, clashing with US demands for full dismantlement of facilities like Natanz and Fordow. Recent IAEA reports from late February highlight Iran's 60% enriched uranium production—the highest among non-nuclear states—and unresolved inspection access at Isfahan. Escalating airstrikes, including US operations and a downed F-15 last week, underscore diplomatic impasse, with no confirmed breakthroughs despite unverified ceasefire proposals, leaving significant barriers to any pre-deadline accord.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoO Irã concorda em acabar com o enriquecimento de urânio até 30 de junho?
O Irã concorda em acabar com o enriquecimento de urânio até 30 de junho?
Sim
$170,012 Vol.
$170,012 Vol.
30 jun 2026
Sim
$170,012 Vol.
$170,012 Vol.
30 jun 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus prices an 88% chance against Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by June 30, reflecting stalled indirect US-Iran nuclear negotiations amid ongoing military conflict. February Geneva talks mediated by Oman saw Iran offer temporary suspension to 3.67% purity and zero stockpiling but firmly reject permanent cessation or stockpile transfer, clashing with US demands for full dismantlement of facilities like Natanz and Fordow. Recent IAEA reports from late February highlight Iran's 60% enriched uranium production—the highest among non-nuclear states—and unresolved inspection access at Isfahan. Escalating airstrikes, including US operations and a downed F-15 last week, underscore diplomatic impasse, with no confirmed breakthroughs despite unverified ceasefire proposals, leaving significant barriers to any pre-deadline accord.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Feb 12, 2026, 3:26 PM ET
Volume
$170,012Data de Término
30 jun 2026Mercado Aberto
Feb 12, 2026, 3:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus prices an 88% chance against Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by June 30, reflecting stalled indirect US-Iran nuclear negotiations amid ongoing military conflict. February Geneva talks mediated by Oman saw Iran offer temporary suspension to 3.67% purity and zero stockpiling but firmly reject permanent cessation or stockpile transfer, clashing with US demands for full dismantlement of facilities like Natanz and Fordow. Recent IAEA reports from late February highlight Iran's 60% enriched uranium production—the highest among non-nuclear states—and unresolved inspection access at Isfahan. Escalating airstrikes, including US operations and a downed F-15 last week, underscore diplomatic impasse, with no confirmed breakthroughs despite unverified ceasefire proposals, leaving significant barriers to any pre-deadline accord.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$170,012Data de Término
30 jun 2026Mercado Aberto
Feb 12, 2026, 3:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices an 88% chance against Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by June 30, reflecting stalled indirect US-Iran nuclear negotiations amid ongoing military conflict. February Geneva talks mediated by Oman saw Iran offer temporary suspension to 3.67% purity and zero stockpiling but firmly reject permanent cessation or stockpile transfer, clashing with US demands for full dismantlement of facilities like Natanz and Fordow. Recent IAEA reports from late February highlight Iran's 60% enriched uranium production—the highest among non-nuclear states—and unresolved inspection access at Isfahan. Escalating airstrikes, including US operations and a downed F-15 last week, underscore diplomatic impasse, with no confirmed breakthroughs despite unverified ceasefire proposals, leaving significant barriers to any pre-deadline accord.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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