Ukrainian forces have repelled repeated Russian assaults on Hryshyne northwest of Pokrovsk over the past week, including counterattacks south of the village reported in ISW assessments on April 1-2, anchoring trader consensus at 85.5% implied probability against full Russian capture by April 30. Ukrainian General Staff updates detail 56-58 halted attacks near Hryshyne amid heavy clashes, with Russian troops suffering losses, food and water shortages on approaches, and failed attempts to exploit fog for infantry advances. The 7th Rapid Reaction Corps and mechanized brigades continue clearing operations, maintaining positions despite Russian pressure to expand control from occupied Pokrovsk. With 27 days remaining and Russian advance rates averaging just 5.5 square kilometers daily earlier in 2026, traders view a complete occupation as improbable without significant escalation or breakthroughs.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoWill Russia capture all of Hryshyne by April 30?
Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by April 30?
NOVO
NOVO
30 abr 2026
NOVO
NOVO
30 abr 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Hryshyne, Donetsk Oblast, (48.326812° N, 37.081701° E) by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
Hryshyne will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the resolution date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
The territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, however, the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Once Russia captures the entirety of the specified area, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/4PzLD4keUCHdSRLC6
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.Ukrainian forces have repelled repeated Russian assaults on Hryshyne northwest of Pokrovsk over the past week, including counterattacks south of the village reported in ISW assessments on April 1-2, anchoring trader consensus at 85.5% implied probability against full Russian capture by April 30. Ukrainian General Staff updates detail 56-58 halted attacks near Hryshyne amid heavy clashes, with Russian troops suffering losses, food and water shortages on approaches, and failed attempts to exploit fog for infantry advances. The 7th Rapid Reaction Corps and mechanized brigades continue clearing operations, maintaining positions despite Russian pressure to expand control from occupied Pokrovsk. With 27 days remaining and Russian advance rates averaging just 5.5 square kilometers daily earlier in 2026, traders view a complete occupation as improbable without significant escalation or breakthroughs.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Hryshyne, Donetsk Oblast, (48.326812° N, 37.081701° E) by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
Hryshyne will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the resolution date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
The territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, however, the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Once Russia captures the entirety of the specified area, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/4PzLD4keUCHdSRLC6
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Hryshyne will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the resolution date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
The territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, however, the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Once Russia captures the entirety of the specified area, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/4PzLD4keUCHdSRLC6
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Mercado Aberto: Apr 1, 2026, 3:00 PM ET
Volume
$1,301Data de Término
30 abr 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 1, 2026, 3:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Hryshyne, Donetsk Oblast, (48.326812° N, 37.081701° E) by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
Hryshyne will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the resolution date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
The territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, however, the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Once Russia captures the entirety of the specified area, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/4PzLD4keUCHdSRLC6
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.Ukrainian forces have repelled repeated Russian assaults on Hryshyne northwest of Pokrovsk over the past week, including counterattacks south of the village reported in ISW assessments on April 1-2, anchoring trader consensus at 85.5% implied probability against full Russian capture by April 30. Ukrainian General Staff updates detail 56-58 halted attacks near Hryshyne amid heavy clashes, with Russian troops suffering losses, food and water shortages on approaches, and failed attempts to exploit fog for infantry advances. The 7th Rapid Reaction Corps and mechanized brigades continue clearing operations, maintaining positions despite Russian pressure to expand control from occupied Pokrovsk. With 27 days remaining and Russian advance rates averaging just 5.5 square kilometers daily earlier in 2026, traders view a complete occupation as improbable without significant escalation or breakthroughs.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Hryshyne, Donetsk Oblast, (48.326812° N, 37.081701° E) by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
Hryshyne will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the resolution date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
The territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, however, the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Once Russia captures the entirety of the specified area, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/4PzLD4keUCHdSRLC6
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Hryshyne will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the resolution date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
The territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, however, the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Once Russia captures the entirety of the specified area, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/4PzLD4keUCHdSRLC6
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Volume
$1,301Data de Término
30 abr 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 1, 2026, 3:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ukrainian forces have repelled repeated Russian assaults on Hryshyne northwest of Pokrovsk over the past week, including counterattacks south of the village reported in ISW assessments on April 1-2, anchoring trader consensus at 85.5% implied probability against full Russian capture by April 30. Ukrainian General Staff updates detail 56-58 halted attacks near Hryshyne amid heavy clashes, with Russian troops suffering losses, food and water shortages on approaches, and failed attempts to exploit fog for infantry advances. The 7th Rapid Reaction Corps and mechanized brigades continue clearing operations, maintaining positions despite Russian pressure to expand control from occupied Pokrovsk. With 27 days remaining and Russian advance rates averaging just 5.5 square kilometers daily earlier in 2026, traders view a complete occupation as improbable without significant escalation or breakthroughs.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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