Trader consensus reflects a 95% implied probability against Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by April 30, driven by ongoing U.S.-Israeli airstrikes that have damaged or destroyed major facilities including Natanz, Fordow, Arak, and Isfahan over the past month, severely curtailing enrichment capacity amid an escalating conflict now 33 days old. IAEA reports confirm Iran's pre-strike stockpile of highly enriched uranium suffices for up to 10 nuclear weapons, with inspectors lacking access to verify current status or undeclared sites like Isfahan tunnels. Indirect U.S.-Iran talks in Oman collapsed in late February after Tehran rejected demands to permanently halt enrichment, relocate stockpiles, and curb ballistic missiles, as affirmed by Supreme Leader Khamenei's statements. No new negotiations are scheduled, though a sudden ceasefire or diplomatic breakthrough could shift odds.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoO Irã concorda em acabar com o enriquecimento de urânio até 30 de abril?
O Irã concorda em acabar com o enriquecimento de urânio até 30 de abril?
Sim
$206,631 Vol.
$206,631 Vol.
30 abr 2026
Sim
$206,631 Vol.
$206,631 Vol.
30 abr 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus reflects a 95% implied probability against Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by April 30, driven by ongoing U.S.-Israeli airstrikes that have damaged or destroyed major facilities including Natanz, Fordow, Arak, and Isfahan over the past month, severely curtailing enrichment capacity amid an escalating conflict now 33 days old. IAEA reports confirm Iran's pre-strike stockpile of highly enriched uranium suffices for up to 10 nuclear weapons, with inspectors lacking access to verify current status or undeclared sites like Isfahan tunnels. Indirect U.S.-Iran talks in Oman collapsed in late February after Tehran rejected demands to permanently halt enrichment, relocate stockpiles, and curb ballistic missiles, as affirmed by Supreme Leader Khamenei's statements. No new negotiations are scheduled, though a sudden ceasefire or diplomatic breakthrough could shift odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 6, 2026, 1:26 PM ET
Volume
$206,631Data de Término
30 abr 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 6, 2026, 1:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus reflects a 95% implied probability against Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by April 30, driven by ongoing U.S.-Israeli airstrikes that have damaged or destroyed major facilities including Natanz, Fordow, Arak, and Isfahan over the past month, severely curtailing enrichment capacity amid an escalating conflict now 33 days old. IAEA reports confirm Iran's pre-strike stockpile of highly enriched uranium suffices for up to 10 nuclear weapons, with inspectors lacking access to verify current status or undeclared sites like Isfahan tunnels. Indirect U.S.-Iran talks in Oman collapsed in late February after Tehran rejected demands to permanently halt enrichment, relocate stockpiles, and curb ballistic missiles, as affirmed by Supreme Leader Khamenei's statements. No new negotiations are scheduled, though a sudden ceasefire or diplomatic breakthrough could shift odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$206,631Data de Término
30 abr 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 6, 2026, 1:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects a 95% implied probability against Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by April 30, driven by ongoing U.S.-Israeli airstrikes that have damaged or destroyed major facilities including Natanz, Fordow, Arak, and Isfahan over the past month, severely curtailing enrichment capacity amid an escalating conflict now 33 days old. IAEA reports confirm Iran's pre-strike stockpile of highly enriched uranium suffices for up to 10 nuclear weapons, with inspectors lacking access to verify current status or undeclared sites like Isfahan tunnels. Indirect U.S.-Iran talks in Oman collapsed in late February after Tehran rejected demands to permanently halt enrichment, relocate stockpiles, and curb ballistic missiles, as affirmed by Supreme Leader Khamenei's statements. No new negotiations are scheduled, though a sudden ceasefire or diplomatic breakthrough could shift odds.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions