Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 96.5% implied probability against a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by June 30, 2026, driven by the U.S. intelligence community's March 2026 Annual Threat Assessment, which concluded Beijing lacks plans for a 2027 invasion and prefers unification without force due to prohibitive economic, military, and diplomatic costs. No major PLA military exercises or escalatory signals have emerged in the Taiwan Strait since January's large-scale drills, reinforcing perceptions of restraint amid U.S. deterrence, Taiwan's fortifications, and China's domestic priorities. With under three months remaining, detectable preparations for an amphibious assault would be evident by now; potential shifters include abrupt diplomatic breakdowns, Taiwan independence declarations, or shifts in U.S. alliance commitments.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoSim
$2,079,325 Vol.
$2,079,325 Vol.
30 jun 2026
Sim
$2,079,325 Vol.
$2,079,325 Vol.
30 jun 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 96.5% implied probability against a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by June 30, 2026, driven by the U.S. intelligence community's March 2026 Annual Threat Assessment, which concluded Beijing lacks plans for a 2027 invasion and prefers unification without force due to prohibitive economic, military, and diplomatic costs. No major PLA military exercises or escalatory signals have emerged in the Taiwan Strait since January's large-scale drills, reinforcing perceptions of restraint amid U.S. deterrence, Taiwan's fortifications, and China's domestic priorities. With under three months remaining, detectable preparations for an amphibious assault would be evident by now; potential shifters include abrupt diplomatic breakdowns, Taiwan independence declarations, or shifts in U.S. alliance commitments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Dec 17, 2025, 3:24 PM ET
Volume
$2,079,325Data de Término
30 jun 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 17, 2025, 3:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 96.5% implied probability against a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by June 30, 2026, driven by the U.S. intelligence community's March 2026 Annual Threat Assessment, which concluded Beijing lacks plans for a 2027 invasion and prefers unification without force due to prohibitive economic, military, and diplomatic costs. No major PLA military exercises or escalatory signals have emerged in the Taiwan Strait since January's large-scale drills, reinforcing perceptions of restraint amid U.S. deterrence, Taiwan's fortifications, and China's domestic priorities. With under three months remaining, detectable preparations for an amphibious assault would be evident by now; potential shifters include abrupt diplomatic breakdowns, Taiwan independence declarations, or shifts in U.S. alliance commitments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$2,079,325Data de Término
30 jun 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 17, 2025, 3:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 96.5% implied probability against a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by June 30, 2026, driven by the U.S. intelligence community's March 2026 Annual Threat Assessment, which concluded Beijing lacks plans for a 2027 invasion and prefers unification without force due to prohibitive economic, military, and diplomatic costs. No major PLA military exercises or escalatory signals have emerged in the Taiwan Strait since January's large-scale drills, reinforcing perceptions of restraint amid U.S. deterrence, Taiwan's fortifications, and China's domestic priorities. With under three months remaining, detectable preparations for an amphibious assault would be evident by now; potential shifters include abrupt diplomatic breakdowns, Taiwan independence declarations, or shifts in U.S. alliance commitments.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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