Trader consensus on an 86.5% implied probability of no China-Japan military clash before 2027 reflects persistent but contained gray-zone activities in the East China Sea, including routine Chinese coast guard patrols and survey vessels near the disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands, met by Japanese protests, air scrambles, and monitoring. In the past week, Japanese fighters intercepted an upgraded Chinese Y-9 anti-submarine aircraft off Okinawa, while Tokyo protested a PLA vessel in territorial waters—standard responses without kinetic escalation. Ongoing diplomatic friction over Taiwan contingencies and Japan's long-range missile deployments persists from the 2025-2026 crisis, yet economic ties, U.S.-Japan security treaty deterrence, and mutual restraint maintain the status quo, with no major triggers for armed conflict in sight.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoSim
$550,442 Vol.
$550,442 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Sim
$550,442 Vol.
$550,442 Vol.
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Japan between November 17, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Japanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Japan Coast Guard (JCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on an 86.5% implied probability of no China-Japan military clash before 2027 reflects persistent but contained gray-zone activities in the East China Sea, including routine Chinese coast guard patrols and survey vessels near the disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands, met by Japanese protests, air scrambles, and monitoring. In the past week, Japanese fighters intercepted an upgraded Chinese Y-9 anti-submarine aircraft off Okinawa, while Tokyo protested a PLA vessel in territorial waters—standard responses without kinetic escalation. Ongoing diplomatic friction over Taiwan contingencies and Japan's long-range missile deployments persists from the 2025-2026 crisis, yet economic ties, U.S.-Japan security treaty deterrence, and mutual restraint maintain the status quo, with no major triggers for armed conflict in sight.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Japan between November 17, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Japanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Japan Coast Guard (JCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Japanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Japan Coast Guard (JCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Nov 18, 2025, 10:43 AM ET
Volume
$550,442Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Nov 18, 2025, 10:43 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Japan between November 17, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Japanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Japan Coast Guard (JCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on an 86.5% implied probability of no China-Japan military clash before 2027 reflects persistent but contained gray-zone activities in the East China Sea, including routine Chinese coast guard patrols and survey vessels near the disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands, met by Japanese protests, air scrambles, and monitoring. In the past week, Japanese fighters intercepted an upgraded Chinese Y-9 anti-submarine aircraft off Okinawa, while Tokyo protested a PLA vessel in territorial waters—standard responses without kinetic escalation. Ongoing diplomatic friction over Taiwan contingencies and Japan's long-range missile deployments persists from the 2025-2026 crisis, yet economic ties, U.S.-Japan security treaty deterrence, and mutual restraint maintain the status quo, with no major triggers for armed conflict in sight.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Japan between November 17, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Japanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Japan Coast Guard (JCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Japanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Japan Coast Guard (JCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$550,442Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Nov 18, 2025, 10:43 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on an 86.5% implied probability of no China-Japan military clash before 2027 reflects persistent but contained gray-zone activities in the East China Sea, including routine Chinese coast guard patrols and survey vessels near the disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands, met by Japanese protests, air scrambles, and monitoring. In the past week, Japanese fighters intercepted an upgraded Chinese Y-9 anti-submarine aircraft off Okinawa, while Tokyo protested a PLA vessel in territorial waters—standard responses without kinetic escalation. Ongoing diplomatic friction over Taiwan contingencies and Japan's long-range missile deployments persists from the 2025-2026 crisis, yet economic ties, U.S.-Japan security treaty deterrence, and mutual restraint maintain the status quo, with no major triggers for armed conflict in sight.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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