Traders assign a 99.4% probability that no 100% tariff on Canadian goods will take effect by June 30 because President Trump’s January 2026 threat was explicitly conditional on Canada concluding a trade agreement with China, a step Ottawa has repeatedly denied pursuing. Recent developments instead show U.S. tariffs on Canada limited to a temporary 10% surcharge on non-CUSMA-compliant imports, plus existing sectoral duties on steel, aluminum, and copper, with CUSMA-compliant goods largely exempt. No new executive actions, legislative moves, or diplomatic escalations have altered that framework in the weeks leading to the deadline. The U.S.-Canada-Mexico agreement review scheduled for July 2026 falls outside the resolution window and shows no signs of triggering an immediate blanket rate hike. Only an unforeseen late reversal by Canada on China policy or an abrupt policy shift by the administration could still alter the outcome before June 30.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoSim
$61,582 Vol.
$61,582 Vol.
30 jun 2026
Sim
$61,582 Vol.
$61,582 Vol.
30 jun 2026
On January 24, President Trump announced that the United States would apply a 100% tariff to all imports from Canada if a trade deal with China goes through. (see: https://www.reuters.com/world/china/trump-threatens-canada-with-100-tariff-over-possible-deal-with-china-2026-01-24/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a general 100% tariff rate or higher on imports into the United States from Canada goes into effect for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only tariffs specifically targeting Canada will qualify. For example, a new global tariff (tariffs on all imports into the U.S.) will not count toward this market's resolution.
For the purpose of this market, "goes into effect" means the start date of the tariffs (as set by legislation or executive action) must have passed without being further delayed or suspended. Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 50% tariff on top of that on Canadian imports would equal a 60% tariff). Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
A general tariff that includes item specific exceptions will still qualify, as long as a policy of a general 100% tariff on all imports into the United States from Canada is in effect.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible information will also be used.Traders assign a 99.4% probability that no 100% tariff on Canadian goods will take effect by June 30 because President Trump’s January 2026 threat was explicitly conditional on Canada concluding a trade agreement with China, a step Ottawa has repeatedly denied pursuing. Recent developments instead show U.S. tariffs on Canada limited to a temporary 10% surcharge on non-CUSMA-compliant imports, plus existing sectoral duties on steel, aluminum, and copper, with CUSMA-compliant goods largely exempt. No new executive actions, legislative moves, or diplomatic escalations have altered that framework in the weeks leading to the deadline. The U.S.-Canada-Mexico agreement review scheduled for July 2026 falls outside the resolution window and shows no signs of triggering an immediate blanket rate hike. Only an unforeseen late reversal by Canada on China policy or an abrupt policy shift by the administration could still alter the outcome before June 30.
On January 24, President Trump announced that the United States would apply a 100% tariff to all imports from Canada if a trade deal with China goes through. (see: https://www.reuters.com/world/china/trump-threatens-canada-with-100-tariff-over-possible-deal-with-china-2026-01-24/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a general 100% tariff rate or higher on imports into the United States from Canada goes into effect for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only tariffs specifically targeting Canada will qualify. For example, a new global tariff (tariffs on all imports into the U.S.) will not count toward this market's resolution.
For the purpose of this market, "goes into effect" means the start date of the tariffs (as set by legislation or executive action) must have passed without being further delayed or suspended. Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 50% tariff on top of that on Canadian imports would equal a 60% tariff). Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
A general tariff that includes item specific exceptions will still qualify, as long as a policy of a general 100% tariff on all imports into the United States from Canada is in effect.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible information will also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a general 100% tariff rate or higher on imports into the United States from Canada goes into effect for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only tariffs specifically targeting Canada will qualify. For example, a new global tariff (tariffs on all imports into the U.S.) will not count toward this market's resolution.
For the purpose of this market, "goes into effect" means the start date of the tariffs (as set by legislation or executive action) must have passed without being further delayed or suspended. Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 50% tariff on top of that on Canadian imports would equal a 60% tariff). Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
A general tariff that includes item specific exceptions will still qualify, as long as a policy of a general 100% tariff on all imports into the United States from Canada is in effect.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible information will also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Jan 24, 2026, 12:35 PM ET
Volume
$61,582Data de Término
30 jun 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 24, 2026, 12:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...On January 24, President Trump announced that the United States would apply a 100% tariff to all imports from Canada if a trade deal with China goes through. (see: https://www.reuters.com/world/china/trump-threatens-canada-with-100-tariff-over-possible-deal-with-china-2026-01-24/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a general 100% tariff rate or higher on imports into the United States from Canada goes into effect for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only tariffs specifically targeting Canada will qualify. For example, a new global tariff (tariffs on all imports into the U.S.) will not count toward this market's resolution.
For the purpose of this market, "goes into effect" means the start date of the tariffs (as set by legislation or executive action) must have passed without being further delayed or suspended. Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 50% tariff on top of that on Canadian imports would equal a 60% tariff). Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
A general tariff that includes item specific exceptions will still qualify, as long as a policy of a general 100% tariff on all imports into the United States from Canada is in effect.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible information will also be used.Traders assign a 99.4% probability that no 100% tariff on Canadian goods will take effect by June 30 because President Trump’s January 2026 threat was explicitly conditional on Canada concluding a trade agreement with China, a step Ottawa has repeatedly denied pursuing. Recent developments instead show U.S. tariffs on Canada limited to a temporary 10% surcharge on non-CUSMA-compliant imports, plus existing sectoral duties on steel, aluminum, and copper, with CUSMA-compliant goods largely exempt. No new executive actions, legislative moves, or diplomatic escalations have altered that framework in the weeks leading to the deadline. The U.S.-Canada-Mexico agreement review scheduled for July 2026 falls outside the resolution window and shows no signs of triggering an immediate blanket rate hike. Only an unforeseen late reversal by Canada on China policy or an abrupt policy shift by the administration could still alter the outcome before June 30.
On January 24, President Trump announced that the United States would apply a 100% tariff to all imports from Canada if a trade deal with China goes through. (see: https://www.reuters.com/world/china/trump-threatens-canada-with-100-tariff-over-possible-deal-with-china-2026-01-24/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a general 100% tariff rate or higher on imports into the United States from Canada goes into effect for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only tariffs specifically targeting Canada will qualify. For example, a new global tariff (tariffs on all imports into the U.S.) will not count toward this market's resolution.
For the purpose of this market, "goes into effect" means the start date of the tariffs (as set by legislation or executive action) must have passed without being further delayed or suspended. Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 50% tariff on top of that on Canadian imports would equal a 60% tariff). Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
A general tariff that includes item specific exceptions will still qualify, as long as a policy of a general 100% tariff on all imports into the United States from Canada is in effect.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible information will also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a general 100% tariff rate or higher on imports into the United States from Canada goes into effect for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only tariffs specifically targeting Canada will qualify. For example, a new global tariff (tariffs on all imports into the U.S.) will not count toward this market's resolution.
For the purpose of this market, "goes into effect" means the start date of the tariffs (as set by legislation or executive action) must have passed without being further delayed or suspended. Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 50% tariff on top of that on Canadian imports would equal a 60% tariff). Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
A general tariff that includes item specific exceptions will still qualify, as long as a policy of a general 100% tariff on all imports into the United States from Canada is in effect.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible information will also be used.
Volume
$61,582Data de Término
30 jun 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 24, 2026, 12:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 99.4% probability that no 100% tariff on Canadian goods will take effect by June 30 because President Trump’s January 2026 threat was explicitly conditional on Canada concluding a trade agreement with China, a step Ottawa has repeatedly denied pursuing. Recent developments instead show U.S. tariffs on Canada limited to a temporary 10% surcharge on non-CUSMA-compliant imports, plus existing sectoral duties on steel, aluminum, and copper, with CUSMA-compliant goods largely exempt. No new executive actions, legislative moves, or diplomatic escalations have altered that framework in the weeks leading to the deadline. The U.S.-Canada-Mexico agreement review scheduled for July 2026 falls outside the resolution window and shows no signs of triggering an immediate blanket rate hike. Only an unforeseen late reversal by Canada on China policy or an abrupt policy shift by the administration could still alter the outcome before June 30.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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