Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 95.3% implied probability for a blanket 100% tariff on Canada taking effect by June 30, driven by the absence of any official announcement, executive order, or procedural steps from the Trump administration to impose such an extreme measure amid ongoing USMCA negotiations. Recent U.S. Trade Representative reports from early April 2026 highlight irritants like Canada's "Buy Canadian" policy and trade ties with China—echoing a January threat of 100% tariffs conditional on a China deal that never materialized—but focus instead on sector-specific actions, such as strengthened steel and aluminum tariffs under Section 232 and a new 100% levy on non-U.S. patented pharmaceuticals effective later this summer. The Supreme Court's February ruling striking down prior broad tariffs under IEEPA further constrains options, reinforcing trader confidence despite bilateral tensions. Realistic shifts could stem from abrupt escalation in talks, fentanyl-related disputes, or a new national security justification, though economic interdependence limits likelihood before the deadline.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado$39,649 Vol.
$39,649 Vol.
30 jun 2026
$39,649 Vol.
$39,649 Vol.
30 jun 2026
On January 24, President Trump announced that the United States would apply a 100% tariff to all imports from Canada if a trade deal with China goes through. (see: https://www.reuters.com/world/china/trump-threatens-canada-with-100-tariff-over-possible-deal-with-china-2026-01-24/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a general 100% tariff rate or higher on imports into the United States from Canada goes into effect for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only tariffs specifically targeting Canada will qualify. For example, a new global tariff (tariffs on all imports into the U.S.) will not count toward this market's resolution.
For the purpose of this market, "goes into effect" means the start date of the tariffs (as set by legislation or executive action) must have passed without being further delayed or suspended. Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 50% tariff on top of that on Canadian imports would equal a 60% tariff). Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
A general tariff that includes item specific exceptions will still qualify, as long as a policy of a general 100% tariff on all imports into the United States from Canada is in effect.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible information will also be used.Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 95.3% implied probability for a blanket 100% tariff on Canada taking effect by June 30, driven by the absence of any official announcement, executive order, or procedural steps from the Trump administration to impose such an extreme measure amid ongoing USMCA negotiations. Recent U.S. Trade Representative reports from early April 2026 highlight irritants like Canada's "Buy Canadian" policy and trade ties with China—echoing a January threat of 100% tariffs conditional on a China deal that never materialized—but focus instead on sector-specific actions, such as strengthened steel and aluminum tariffs under Section 232 and a new 100% levy on non-U.S. patented pharmaceuticals effective later this summer. The Supreme Court's February ruling striking down prior broad tariffs under IEEPA further constrains options, reinforcing trader confidence despite bilateral tensions. Realistic shifts could stem from abrupt escalation in talks, fentanyl-related disputes, or a new national security justification, though economic interdependence limits likelihood before the deadline.
On January 24, President Trump announced that the United States would apply a 100% tariff to all imports from Canada if a trade deal with China goes through. (see: https://www.reuters.com/world/china/trump-threatens-canada-with-100-tariff-over-possible-deal-with-china-2026-01-24/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a general 100% tariff rate or higher on imports into the United States from Canada goes into effect for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only tariffs specifically targeting Canada will qualify. For example, a new global tariff (tariffs on all imports into the U.S.) will not count toward this market's resolution.
For the purpose of this market, "goes into effect" means the start date of the tariffs (as set by legislation or executive action) must have passed without being further delayed or suspended. Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 50% tariff on top of that on Canadian imports would equal a 60% tariff). Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
A general tariff that includes item specific exceptions will still qualify, as long as a policy of a general 100% tariff on all imports into the United States from Canada is in effect.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible information will also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a general 100% tariff rate or higher on imports into the United States from Canada goes into effect for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only tariffs specifically targeting Canada will qualify. For example, a new global tariff (tariffs on all imports into the U.S.) will not count toward this market's resolution.
For the purpose of this market, "goes into effect" means the start date of the tariffs (as set by legislation or executive action) must have passed without being further delayed or suspended. Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 50% tariff on top of that on Canadian imports would equal a 60% tariff). Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
A general tariff that includes item specific exceptions will still qualify, as long as a policy of a general 100% tariff on all imports into the United States from Canada is in effect.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible information will also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Jan 24, 2026, 12:35 PM ET
Volume
$39,649Data de Término
30 jun 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 24, 2026, 12:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...On January 24, President Trump announced that the United States would apply a 100% tariff to all imports from Canada if a trade deal with China goes through. (see: https://www.reuters.com/world/china/trump-threatens-canada-with-100-tariff-over-possible-deal-with-china-2026-01-24/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a general 100% tariff rate or higher on imports into the United States from Canada goes into effect for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only tariffs specifically targeting Canada will qualify. For example, a new global tariff (tariffs on all imports into the U.S.) will not count toward this market's resolution.
For the purpose of this market, "goes into effect" means the start date of the tariffs (as set by legislation or executive action) must have passed without being further delayed or suspended. Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 50% tariff on top of that on Canadian imports would equal a 60% tariff). Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
A general tariff that includes item specific exceptions will still qualify, as long as a policy of a general 100% tariff on all imports into the United States from Canada is in effect.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible information will also be used.Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 95.3% implied probability for a blanket 100% tariff on Canada taking effect by June 30, driven by the absence of any official announcement, executive order, or procedural steps from the Trump administration to impose such an extreme measure amid ongoing USMCA negotiations. Recent U.S. Trade Representative reports from early April 2026 highlight irritants like Canada's "Buy Canadian" policy and trade ties with China—echoing a January threat of 100% tariffs conditional on a China deal that never materialized—but focus instead on sector-specific actions, such as strengthened steel and aluminum tariffs under Section 232 and a new 100% levy on non-U.S. patented pharmaceuticals effective later this summer. The Supreme Court's February ruling striking down prior broad tariffs under IEEPA further constrains options, reinforcing trader confidence despite bilateral tensions. Realistic shifts could stem from abrupt escalation in talks, fentanyl-related disputes, or a new national security justification, though economic interdependence limits likelihood before the deadline.
On January 24, President Trump announced that the United States would apply a 100% tariff to all imports from Canada if a trade deal with China goes through. (see: https://www.reuters.com/world/china/trump-threatens-canada-with-100-tariff-over-possible-deal-with-china-2026-01-24/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a general 100% tariff rate or higher on imports into the United States from Canada goes into effect for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only tariffs specifically targeting Canada will qualify. For example, a new global tariff (tariffs on all imports into the U.S.) will not count toward this market's resolution.
For the purpose of this market, "goes into effect" means the start date of the tariffs (as set by legislation or executive action) must have passed without being further delayed or suspended. Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 50% tariff on top of that on Canadian imports would equal a 60% tariff). Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
A general tariff that includes item specific exceptions will still qualify, as long as a policy of a general 100% tariff on all imports into the United States from Canada is in effect.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible information will also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a general 100% tariff rate or higher on imports into the United States from Canada goes into effect for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only tariffs specifically targeting Canada will qualify. For example, a new global tariff (tariffs on all imports into the U.S.) will not count toward this market's resolution.
For the purpose of this market, "goes into effect" means the start date of the tariffs (as set by legislation or executive action) must have passed without being further delayed or suspended. Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 50% tariff on top of that on Canadian imports would equal a 60% tariff). Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
A general tariff that includes item specific exceptions will still qualify, as long as a policy of a general 100% tariff on all imports into the United States from Canada is in effect.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible information will also be used.
Volume
$39,649Data de Término
30 jun 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 24, 2026, 12:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 95.3% implied probability for a blanket 100% tariff on Canada taking effect by June 30, driven by the absence of any official announcement, executive order, or procedural steps from the Trump administration to impose such an extreme measure amid ongoing USMCA negotiations. Recent U.S. Trade Representative reports from early April 2026 highlight irritants like Canada's "Buy Canadian" policy and trade ties with China—echoing a January threat of 100% tariffs conditional on a China deal that never materialized—but focus instead on sector-specific actions, such as strengthened steel and aluminum tariffs under Section 232 and a new 100% levy on non-U.S. patented pharmaceuticals effective later this summer. The Supreme Court's February ruling striking down prior broad tariffs under IEEPA further constrains options, reinforcing trader confidence despite bilateral tensions. Realistic shifts could stem from abrupt escalation in talks, fentanyl-related disputes, or a new national security justification, though economic interdependence limits likelihood before the deadline.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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