Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 67.5% implied probability of no U.S. recession by end-2026, reflecting resilient economic projections amid moderating headwinds. The Federal Reserve's March 18 projections forecast 2.4% real GDP growth and a steady 4.4% unemployment rate for 2026, bolstering optimism despite February's unexpected nonfarm payroll decline of 92,000 jobs. Elevated oil prices from Middle East tensions briefly pushed Yes odds to 37% last week, but cooling inflation—PCE at 2.7% for the year—and anticipated one Fed funds rate cut have stabilized sentiment. Yield curve uninversion signals reduced near-term risks, aligning with economist base cases of 2.2–2.6% growth. Key catalysts include Q1 GDP advance estimate later this month and the March nonfarm payrolls report.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoRecessão dos EUA até o final de 2026?
Recessão dos EUA até o final de 2026?
Sim
$1,021,497 Vol.
$1,021,497 Vol.
31 jan 2027
Sim
$1,021,497 Vol.
$1,021,497 Vol.
31 jan 2027
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-productTrader consensus on Polymarket prices a 67.5% implied probability of no U.S. recession by end-2026, reflecting resilient economic projections amid moderating headwinds. The Federal Reserve's March 18 projections forecast 2.4% real GDP growth and a steady 4.4% unemployment rate for 2026, bolstering optimism despite February's unexpected nonfarm payroll decline of 92,000 jobs. Elevated oil prices from Middle East tensions briefly pushed Yes odds to 37% last week, but cooling inflation—PCE at 2.7% for the year—and anticipated one Fed funds rate cut have stabilized sentiment. Yield curve uninversion signals reduced near-term risks, aligning with economist base cases of 2.2–2.6% growth. Key catalysts include Q1 GDP advance estimate later this month and the March nonfarm payrolls report.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Mercado Aberto: Sep 29, 2025, 6:26 PM ET
Volume
$1,021,497Data de Término
31 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Sep 29, 2025, 6:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-productTrader consensus on Polymarket prices a 67.5% implied probability of no U.S. recession by end-2026, reflecting resilient economic projections amid moderating headwinds. The Federal Reserve's March 18 projections forecast 2.4% real GDP growth and a steady 4.4% unemployment rate for 2026, bolstering optimism despite February's unexpected nonfarm payroll decline of 92,000 jobs. Elevated oil prices from Middle East tensions briefly pushed Yes odds to 37% last week, but cooling inflation—PCE at 2.7% for the year—and anticipated one Fed funds rate cut have stabilized sentiment. Yield curve uninversion signals reduced near-term risks, aligning with economist base cases of 2.2–2.6% growth. Key catalysts include Q1 GDP advance estimate later this month and the March nonfarm payrolls report.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Volume
$1,021,497Data de Término
31 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Sep 29, 2025, 6:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 67.5% implied probability of no U.S. recession by end-2026, reflecting resilient economic projections amid moderating headwinds. The Federal Reserve's March 18 projections forecast 2.4% real GDP growth and a steady 4.4% unemployment rate for 2026, bolstering optimism despite February's unexpected nonfarm payroll decline of 92,000 jobs. Elevated oil prices from Middle East tensions briefly pushed Yes odds to 37% last week, but cooling inflation—PCE at 2.7% for the year—and anticipated one Fed funds rate cut have stabilized sentiment. Yield curve uninversion signals reduced near-term risks, aligning with economist base cases of 2.2–2.6% growth. Key catalysts include Q1 GDP advance estimate later this month and the March nonfarm payrolls report.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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