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Mundo·Taxas Globais

Decisão do Banco da Reserva da Austrália em maio?

Market icon
Mundo·Taxas Globais

Decisão do Banco da Reserva da Austrália em maio?

mai 5

jun 16

mai 5

jun 16

Aumento 59%

Sem alteração 41%

Reduzir <1%

Polymarket

$22,283 Vol.

Aumento 59%

Sem alteração 41%

Reduzir <1%

Polymarket

$22,283 Vol.

Reduzir

$6,485 Vol.

1%

Sem alteração

$2,690 Vol.

41%

Aumento

$13,108 Vol.

57%

This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the cash rate resulting from the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board’s May meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of Australia after its May 5, 2026 meeting, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of Australia calendar: https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/board-meeting-schedules.html This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of Australia's media release for their May 5, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the target for the cash rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket.Polymarket traders price a 57.5% implied probability of an RBA rate increase at the May 5 meeting, reflecting the central bank's hawkish March decision to hike the cash rate target by 25 basis points to 4.10%—a narrow 5-4 board vote amid sticky non-tradables inflation at 5.0% annually through February. Despite softer headline CPI easing to 3.7% year-on-year and unemployment rising to 4.3% with robust part-time job gains, persistent price pressures above the 2-3% target band sustain hike expectations, positioning "No Change" at 40.5%. A rate cut remains negligible at 0.8%, given resilient labor markets. Key catalyst ahead: March-quarter CPI release on April 29, which could sway the fluid policy path.

This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the cash rate resulting from the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board’s May meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.

The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of Australia after its May 5, 2026 meeting, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of Australia calendar: https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/board-meeting-schedules.html

This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of Australia's media release for their May 5, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the target for the cash rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket.
Volume
$22,283
Data de Término
5 mai 2026
Mercado Aberto
Feb 3, 2026, 10:32 AM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the cash rate resulting from the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board’s May meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of Australia after its May 5, 2026 meeting, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of Australia calendar: https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/board-meeting-schedules.html This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of Australia's media release for their May 5, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the target for the cash rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket.
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the cash rate resulting from the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board’s May meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of Australia after its May 5, 2026 meeting, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of Australia calendar: https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/board-meeting-schedules.html This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of Australia's media release for their May 5, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the target for the cash rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket.Polymarket traders price a 57.5% implied probability of an RBA rate increase at the May 5 meeting, reflecting the central bank's hawkish March decision to hike the cash rate target by 25 basis points to 4.10%—a narrow 5-4 board vote amid sticky non-tradables inflation at 5.0% annually through February. Despite softer headline CPI easing to 3.7% year-on-year and unemployment rising to 4.3% with robust part-time job gains, persistent price pressures above the 2-3% target band sustain hike expectations, positioning "No Change" at 40.5%. A rate cut remains negligible at 0.8%, given resilient labor markets. Key catalyst ahead: March-quarter CPI release on April 29, which could sway the fluid policy path.

This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the cash rate resulting from the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board’s May meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.

The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of Australia after its May 5, 2026 meeting, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of Australia calendar: https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/board-meeting-schedules.html

This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of Australia's media release for their May 5, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the target for the cash rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket.
Volume
$22,283
Data de Término
5 mai 2026
Mercado Aberto
Feb 3, 2026, 10:32 AM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the cash rate resulting from the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board’s May meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of Australia after its May 5, 2026 meeting, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of Australia calendar: https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/board-meeting-schedules.html This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of Australia's media release for their May 5, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the target for the cash rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket.

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Decisão do Banco da Reserva da Austrália em maio?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 3 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Aumento" at 57%, followed by "Sem alteração" at 41%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 57¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 57% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Decisão do Banco da Reserva da Austrália em maio?" has generated $22.3K in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 3, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Decisão do Banco da Reserva da Austrália em maio?," browse the 3 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Decisão do Banco da Reserva da Austrália em maio?" is "Aumento" at 57%, meaning the market assigns a 57% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Sem alteração" at 41%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Decisão do Banco da Reserva da Austrália em maio?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.