Surging oil prices above $110 per barrel, driven by U.S.-Iran geopolitical tensions, have reignited inflation fears and prompted traders to fully price out Federal Reserve rate cuts at the April 29, 2026 FOMC meeting, with Polymarket odds reflecting 98% probability of no change from the current 3.5%-3.75% fed funds target range. The Fed held rates steady for a second straight meeting in March, citing sticky core PCE inflation at 3.06% in January despite headline CPI easing to 2.4% year-over-year in February; Chair Powell emphasized monitoring energy-driven pressures while noting well-anchored longer-term expectations. Markets now imply limited easing through 2026, contrasting broker forecasts of two cuts mid-year, ahead of key March CPI and PCE data releases this week that could sway sentiment.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado$1,278,681 Vol.
Reunião de abril
1%
Reunião de junho
10%
Reunião de julho
22%
Reunião de Setembro
41%
Reunião de Outubro
55%
Reunião de Dezembro
64%
$1,278,681 Vol.
Reunião de abril
1%
Reunião de junho
10%
Reunião de julho
22%
Reunião de Setembro
41%
Reunião de Outubro
55%
Reunião de Dezembro
64%
If no April meeting takes place by May 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate cuts will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Dec 16, 2025, 2:26 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...If no April meeting takes place by May 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate cuts will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Surging oil prices above $110 per barrel, driven by U.S.-Iran geopolitical tensions, have reignited inflation fears and prompted traders to fully price out Federal Reserve rate cuts at the April 29, 2026 FOMC meeting, with Polymarket odds reflecting 98% probability of no change from the current 3.5%-3.75% fed funds target range. The Fed held rates steady for a second straight meeting in March, citing sticky core PCE inflation at 3.06% in January despite headline CPI easing to 2.4% year-over-year in February; Chair Powell emphasized monitoring energy-driven pressures while noting well-anchored longer-term expectations. Markets now imply limited easing through 2026, contrasting broker forecasts of two cuts mid-year, ahead of key March CPI and PCE data releases this week that could sway sentiment.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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