Market icon

Redução da taxa de emergência do Fed antes de 2027?

Market icon

Redução da taxa de emergência do Fed antes de 2027?

dez 31

dez 31

Sim

16% acaso
Polymarket

$73,723 Vol.

Sim

16% acaso
Polymarket

$73,723 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026. The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 84% implied probability against a Federal Reserve emergency rate cut before 2027, driven by the FOMC's March 18 decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid persistent inflation from Middle East oil shocks. The updated dot plot projects just one 25 basis point cut via scheduled meetings in 2026, with unemployment steady at 4.4% and GDP growth at 2.4%, signaling no acute crisis like funding stress or recession that historically prompts unscheduled action. Hawkish rhetoric from Chair Powell underscores a pause on easing until late 2026 at earliest, with traders pushing rate cut expectations into 2027. Key catalysts ahead include April 10 CPI data and the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, though geopolitical uncertainties remain a tail risk.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.

The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
Volume
$73,723
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Nov 12, 2025, 6:03 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026. The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026. The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 84% implied probability against a Federal Reserve emergency rate cut before 2027, driven by the FOMC's March 18 decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid persistent inflation from Middle East oil shocks. The updated dot plot projects just one 25 basis point cut via scheduled meetings in 2026, with unemployment steady at 4.4% and GDP growth at 2.4%, signaling no acute crisis like funding stress or recession that historically prompts unscheduled action. Hawkish rhetoric from Chair Powell underscores a pause on easing until late 2026 at earliest, with traders pushing rate cut expectations into 2027. Key catalysts ahead include April 10 CPI data and the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, though geopolitical uncertainties remain a tail risk.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.

The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
Volume
$73,723
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Nov 12, 2025, 6:03 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026. The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Redução da taxa de emergência do Fed antes de 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Corte emergencial da taxa pelo Fed antes de 2027?" at 16%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 16¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 16% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Redução da taxa de emergência do Fed antes de 2027?" has generated $73.7K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 12, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Redução da taxa de emergência do Fed antes de 2027?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Redução da taxa de emergência do Fed antes de 2027?" is "Corte emergencial da taxa pelo Fed antes de 2027?" at 16%, meaning the market assigns a 16% chance to that outcome. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Redução da taxa de emergência do Fed antes de 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.