Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 84% implied probability against a Federal Reserve emergency rate cut before 2027, driven by the FOMC's March 18 decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid persistent inflation from Middle East oil shocks. The updated dot plot projects just one 25 basis point cut via scheduled meetings in 2026, with unemployment steady at 4.4% and GDP growth at 2.4%, signaling no acute crisis like funding stress or recession that historically prompts unscheduled action. Hawkish rhetoric from Chair Powell underscores a pause on easing until late 2026 at earliest, with traders pushing rate cut expectations into 2027. Key catalysts ahead include April 10 CPI data and the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, though geopolitical uncertainties remain a tail risk.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoSim
$73,723 Vol.
$73,723 Vol.
Sim
$73,723 Vol.
$73,723 Vol.
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
Mercado Aberto: Nov 12, 2025, 6:03 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 84% implied probability against a Federal Reserve emergency rate cut before 2027, driven by the FOMC's March 18 decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid persistent inflation from Middle East oil shocks. The updated dot plot projects just one 25 basis point cut via scheduled meetings in 2026, with unemployment steady at 4.4% and GDP growth at 2.4%, signaling no acute crisis like funding stress or recession that historically prompts unscheduled action. Hawkish rhetoric from Chair Powell underscores a pause on easing until late 2026 at earliest, with traders pushing rate cut expectations into 2027. Key catalysts ahead include April 10 CPI data and the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, though geopolitical uncertainties remain a tail risk.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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Frequently Asked Questions