Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's term expires May 15, 2026, while his Board of Governors seat extends to January 31, 2028, fueling trader consensus on Polymarket that he exits the Board by December 31, 2026, at around 70% implied probability. President Trump's March 2026 nomination of Kevin Warsh as successor has stalled amid Senate confirmation delays and a lingering Justice Department probe into Powell, prompting his March 18 FOMC statement affirming he will remain until a replacement is confirmed and the investigation resolves with transparency. This standoff underscores tensions over Fed independence, with markets pricing prolonged uncertainty; key catalysts include Warsh's hearing timeline, probe closure, and May FOMC before the Chair deadline.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado$117,900 Vol.
30 de maio
39%
31 de dezembro
70%
$117,900 Vol.
30 de maio
39%
31 de dezembro
70%
This market is not limited to Jerome Powell’s current position as chair of the Federal Reserve. If Jerome Powell ceases to be Chair of the Federal Reserve, but remains a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, this will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the U.S. Government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Mercado Aberto: Jan 5, 2026, 4:12 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market is not limited to Jerome Powell’s current position as chair of the Federal Reserve. If Jerome Powell ceases to be Chair of the Federal Reserve, but remains a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, this will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the U.S. Government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's term expires May 15, 2026, while his Board of Governors seat extends to January 31, 2028, fueling trader consensus on Polymarket that he exits the Board by December 31, 2026, at around 70% implied probability. President Trump's March 2026 nomination of Kevin Warsh as successor has stalled amid Senate confirmation delays and a lingering Justice Department probe into Powell, prompting his March 18 FOMC statement affirming he will remain until a replacement is confirmed and the investigation resolves with transparency. This standoff underscores tensions over Fed independence, with markets pricing prolonged uncertainty; key catalysts include Warsh's hearing timeline, probe closure, and May FOMC before the Chair deadline.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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