Traders have assigned a 97.5% implied probability to a Pause–Pause–Pause sequence across the March, May, and June 2026 FOMC meetings, underscoring broad consensus that the current federal funds rate target remains appropriate amid resilient economic data and the Fed’s data-dependent stance. This market-implied odds structure aligns with recent central bank communications emphasizing patience on policy adjustments, given the trajectory of inflation metrics and labor market indicators. While the dominant pricing leaves little room for near-term shifts, unexpected developments such as a material softening in employment reports or a notable pickup in price pressures could still prompt reassessment before the June decision.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoPausar–Pausar–Pausar 97.4%
Pausa–Pausa–Corte 2.3%
Outros <1%
$1,230,838 Vol.
$1,230,838 Vol.
17 jun 2026
Pausar–Pausar–Pausar
97%
Pausa–Pausa–Corte
2%
Outros
1%
Pausar–Pausar–Pausar 97.4%
Pausa–Pausa–Corte 2.3%
Outros <1%
$1,230,838 Vol.
$1,230,838 Vol.
17 jun 2026
Pausar–Pausar–Pausar
$132,938 Vol.
97%
Pausa–Pausa–Corte
$80,567 Vol.
2%
Outros
$271,992 Vol.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTraders have assigned a 97.5% implied probability to a Pause–Pause–Pause sequence across the March, May, and June 2026 FOMC meetings, underscoring broad consensus that the current federal funds rate target remains appropriate amid resilient economic data and the Fed’s data-dependent stance. This market-implied odds structure aligns with recent central bank communications emphasizing patience on policy adjustments, given the trajectory of inflation metrics and labor market indicators. While the dominant pricing leaves little room for near-term shifts, unexpected developments such as a material softening in employment reports or a notable pickup in price pressures could still prompt reassessment before the June decision.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Mercado Aberto: Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
Volume
$1,230,838Data de Término
17 jun 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTraders have assigned a 97.5% implied probability to a Pause–Pause–Pause sequence across the March, May, and June 2026 FOMC meetings, underscoring broad consensus that the current federal funds rate target remains appropriate amid resilient economic data and the Fed’s data-dependent stance. This market-implied odds structure aligns with recent central bank communications emphasizing patience on policy adjustments, given the trajectory of inflation metrics and labor market indicators. While the dominant pricing leaves little room for near-term shifts, unexpected developments such as a material softening in employment reports or a notable pickup in price pressures could still prompt reassessment before the June decision.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volume
$1,230,838Data de Término
17 jun 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Traders have assigned a 97.5% implied probability to a Pause–Pause–Pause sequence across the March, May, and June 2026 FOMC meetings, underscoring broad consensus that the current federal funds rate target remains appropriate amid resilient economic data and the Fed’s data-dependent stance. This market-implied odds structure aligns with recent central bank communications emphasizing patience on policy adjustments, given the trajectory of inflation metrics and labor market indicators. While the dominant pricing leaves little room for near-term shifts, unexpected developments such as a material softening in employment reports or a notable pickup in price pressures could still prompt reassessment before the June decision.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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