KPMG’s January 2026 Central‑Bank Scanner notes that “no change in the policy rate is expected” for upcoming meetings, reinforcing the view that a June hike is unlikely

KPMG’s January 2026 Central‑Bank Scanner notes that “no change in the policy rate is expected” for upcoming meetings, reinforcing the view that a June hike is unlikely

J.P. Morgan Global Research projects Fed to hold rates steady for remainder of 2026 amid inflation and geopolitical risks

No change rises to 97%1%

Analyst reports emphasized the Fed's likely pause on rate changes through 2026, citing inflation concerns and Middle East conflict uncertainty, pushing the no-change probability near certainty.

TradingEconomics records the Fed keeping the target range unchanged at 3.5‑3.75 % for the April 2026 meeting, dampening expectations of a June hike

25 bps increase drops to 1%6%

TradingEconomics records the Fed keeping the target range unchanged at 3.5‑3.75 % for the April 2026 meeting, dampening expectations of a June hike

Fed holds rates steady amid dissent, with 8-4 split and cautious messaging on future cuts

No change rises to 96%3%

The April FOMC decision to keep rates unchanged, despite some dissent, and the Fed's cautious tone on future cuts further solidified market expectations for no change in June.

Ahead of the April FOMC meeting, analyst consensus and market positioning solidify expectation of no rate change; final statement confirms Fed keeps rates unchanged, effectively eliminating the 25-bp hike scenario and pushing 50+ bps increase probability to zero

50+ bps increase dips to 0%1%

This confirmed the market's conviction that large rate hikes were off the table for the near term.

Market consensus aligns with Fed guidance for steady rates through 2026

25 bps decrease dips to 5%4%

Market commentary ahead of the April FOMC meeting emphasized the Fed's guidance to hold rates steady for the year, pushing the 25 bps decrease probability further down.

Reuters poll shows majority of economists now expect no Fed rate cuts through September due to persistent inflation

No change rises to 93%2%

Updated economist surveys reflected growing consensus that the Fed would maintain rates steady through at least the third quarter, reinforcing the no-change outlook.

Continued inflation persistence and cautious Fed commentary further reduce June cut odds

25 bps decrease dips to 9%1%

Ongoing inflation concerns and Fed officials' cautious remarks reinforced expectations of no near-term cuts, keeping the 25 bps decrease probability near historic lows.

Market

50+ bps decrease dips to 1%4%

By late March, the market had largely discounted a large rate cut, reflecting ongoing Fed communications and economic data that suggested a more gradual approach to rate reductions.

Escalation of Iran conflict drives oil

50+ bps increase rises to 6%2%

Geopolitical tensions and rising energy

Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady at 5.25%-5.50%, with Chairman Powell emphasizing data dependency and no imminent rate hikes, signaling a wait-and-see approach amid inflation near target

50+ bps increase dips to 1%1%

The Fed's decision to hold rates and Powell's remarks reduced market expectations for large hikes, keeping the 50+ bps increase probability very low.

Hot inflation report pushes back expectations for next Fed rate cut

25 bps decrease plunges to 10%19%

A stronger-than-expected inflation report in mid-March led to a sharp drop in the odds of a June rate cut, with CME FedWatch probabilities for a 25 bps decrease falling to 18.4%, reflecting diminished market confidence.

FOMC holds rates steady at 3.50%-3.75%, with 11-1 vote and updated economic projections showing higher inflation and growth

No change surges to 83%22%

The March FOMC meeting confirmed no rate change, with officials acknowledging inflation risks and a resilient economy, sharply increasing market confidence in no change by June.

Reuters poll maintains expectation of Fed rate cut in June despite war-related inflation risks

No change jumps to 61%11%

Despite inflation concerns, most economists still predicted a June rate cut, supporting a moderate rise in the no-change

Forbes notes Fed Chair Powell cited “higher energy

25 bps increase rises to 7%2%

Forbes notes Fed Chair Powell cited “higher energy

Market reacts to Fed's dot plot showing wide range of rate projections and no early cuts

25 bps decrease drops to 49%7%

The Fed's dot plot revealed a broad distribution of rate forecasts with no consensus on early cuts, causing the market to reduce the likelihood of a June 25 bps decrease.

Reuters poll shows economists pushing back expected Fed rate cuts to late 2026 amid inflation risks from Middle East conflict

No change jumps to 50%11%

A Reuters survey revealed a shift in economist forecasts, with a majority now expecting the Fed to hold rates steady longer due to inflationary pressures linked to geopolitical tensions.

J.P. Morgan Global Research expects Fed to hold rates steady through 2026 amid inflation risks

25 bps decrease jumps to 56%7%

Despite geopolitical risks, J.P. Morgan forecasted no rate cuts in 2026 and a likely hike only in late 2027, supporting a temporary rise in cut probability but overall signaling a hold stance.

January labor market data shows moderate job growth and steady unemployment

No change plunges to 31%16%

January employment reports indicated a stable but not overheating labor market, reducing immediate expectations for Fed rate cuts and causing a dip in the no-change probability.

J.P. Morgan Global Research warns that “inflation running high and expectations at risk of becoming unanchored” could push the Fed to consider a 25‑bp hike later in 2026, reviving

25 bps increase rises to 5%3%

J.P. Morgan Global Research warns that “inflation running high and expectations at risk of becoming unanchored” could push the Fed to consider a 25‑bp hike later in 2026, reviving speculation of a June increase

KPMG report highlights cautious central bank tone and no expected policy rate change in early 2026

25 bps decrease dips to 42%4%

KPMG analysis noted policymakers' cautious stance and expected no rate changes in early 2026, with inflation cooling insufficient to prompt cuts, reinforcing market views against a June rate cut.

Fed’s January 2026 meeting minutes reveal growing disagreement over additional cuts, reinforcing expectations of no 25-bp move and driving the "50+ bps increase" probability to near zero

50+ bps increase drops to 0%6%

The minutes showed Fed officials were split and cautious, which diminished the chance of large hikes and pushed the

Fed minutes reveal deep divisions over timing and extent of further rate cuts, with many officials wanting to wait for more data

50+ bps decrease dips to 7%3%

Minutes from the December meeting showed officials split on whether to cut rates further soon, emphasizing the need for more labor market and inflation data before deciding on additional easing.

CBS News notes the Fed’s last rate cut was in December 2025, reinforcing expectations that the June 2026 meeting would likely be a hold rather than a hike

25 bps increase dips to 2%4%

CBS News notes the Fed’s last rate cut was in December 2025, reinforcing expectations that the June 2026 meeting would likely be a hold rather than a hike

Fed signals likely pause on rate cuts after three consecutive reductions, contrasting with market expectations for faster easing

50+ bps decrease dips to 10%2%

Following the December cut, the Fed indicated it would likely pause further rate cuts as inflation remained elevated and the labor market showed signs of softening, disappointing markets expecting multiple cuts in 2026.

Fed decision pushes expectations for rate cuts lower amid Middle East conflict and inflation concerns

25 bps decrease dips to 40%2%

Following the Fed's December statement, uncertainty from the Iran war and stubborn inflation led markets to pull back on rate cut expectations for 2026, especially for June, lowering the probability of a 25 bps decrease.

Reuters reports the Fed’s post‑meeting projections show policymakers expecting only a single 25‑bp cut in 2026, signalling a more dovish stance

25 bps increase plunges to 6%19%

Reuters reports the Fed’s post‑meeting projections show policymakers expecting only a single 25‑bp cut in 2026, signalling a more dovish stance

Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 25 basis points but signals a cautious outlook with a divided vote and only one expected cut in 2026

50+ bps decrease dips to 12%4%

The Fed lowered the federal funds rate to 3.5%-3.75% in a 9-3 vote, with the "dot plot" showing just one cut in 2026 and another in 2027, reflecting internal divisions and a hawkish tone despite the cut.

Federal Reserve projects only one rate cut in 2026; no hike ahead, says Powell

25 bps decrease drops to 42%8%

The Fed's December meeting projections showed a median expectation of just one quarter-point cut in 2026, with no hikes expected, signaling a pause in early 2026 and reducing near-term cut odds. This tempered market optimism for a June cut.

Federal Reserve cuts interest rates for the third consecutive time to 3.75%-4.00%, but signals uncertainty about further cuts amid sticky inflation and divided Fed views

50+ bps increase drops to 4%6%

This event marked the start of market reassessment of the likelihood of large hikes, as the Fed's cautious tone and divided opinions reduced expectations for aggressive tightening.

Fed holds rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% in December meeting, signaling uncertainty about inflation and economic outlook

No change drops to 45%12%

The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate range, citing ongoing inflation concerns and mixed economic signals, which initially lowered confidence in a no-change outcome for June.