Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 97% implied probability against the Federal Reserve being abolished before 2027, reflecting the central bank's entrenched role in U.S. monetary policy and the absence of legislative traction for abolition proposals. Symbolic bills like the Federal Reserve Board Abolition Act (S.869 and H.R.1846), introduced in early 2025 by Sens. Mike Lee and Rep. Thomas Massie, have stalled without hearings, votes, or bipartisan support, consistent with historical base rates where such measures repeatedly fail. Broad institutional reliance on Fed functions—price stability, lender of last resort—bolsters this skin-in-the-game view amid stable economic data like February 2026 CPI at 2.4%. Tail risks include a severe crisis eroding confidence or 2026 midterm sweeps enabling radical reform, though these remain remote without evident catalysts.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from the US federal government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Nov 5, 2025, 1:10 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the US federal government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 97% implied probability against the Federal Reserve being abolished before 2027, reflecting the central bank's entrenched role in U.S. monetary policy and the absence of legislative traction for abolition proposals. Symbolic bills like the Federal Reserve Board Abolition Act (S.869 and H.R.1846), introduced in early 2025 by Sens. Mike Lee and Rep. Thomas Massie, have stalled without hearings, votes, or bipartisan support, consistent with historical base rates where such measures repeatedly fail. Broad institutional reliance on Fed functions—price stability, lender of last resort—bolsters this skin-in-the-game view amid stable economic data like February 2026 CPI at 2.4%. Tail risks include a severe crisis eroding confidence or 2026 midterm sweeps enabling radical reform, though these remain remote without evident catalysts.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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