Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 97% implied probability to "No" for the Federal Reserve being abolished before 2027, underpinned by the central bank's century-long institutional entrenchment as the architect of U.S. monetary policy, including its pivotal role in managing the federal funds rate and Treasury yields amid ongoing inflation moderation. Recent Federal Open Market Committee actions on March 18, 2026—holding rates steady while Chair Powell underscored the criticality of Fed independence—reinforce this skin-in-the-game positioning, with no substantive legislative proposals advancing in the 119th Congress beyond prior symbolic efforts like the 2025 End the Fed's Big Bank Bailout Act. Tail risks include extreme post-midterm political shifts or unforeseen fiscal crises prompting radical reforms, though structural barriers like bipartisan support and resolution complexities render these improbable. Upcoming FOMC meetings through year-end loom as routine catalysts.