Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 90% implied probability of the Bank of England holding Bank Rate at 3.75% at its April 30 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, reflecting caution amid persistent 3.0% CPI inflation in February and an energy price shock from Middle East conflict. The MPC's unanimous March 19 decision to maintain rates underscored readiness to counter upside inflation risks, while Governor Bailey's April 1 remarks dismissed markets as "ahead of themselves" on hike bets, emphasizing balanced focus on growth and labor market softening. Yesterday's BoE Decision Maker Panel revealed firms' sharpest rise in price expectations since 2022, yet wage forecasts eased to 3.4%, bolstering the no-change positioning with a modest 10% hike tail risk ahead of March CPI data.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoDecisão do Banco da Inglaterra em abril?
Decisão do Banco da Inglaterra em abril?
Nenhuma alteração 90%
Aumento 10.1%
Redução de 25 pontos-base <1%
Redução de mais de 50 pontos-base <1%
$287,459 Vol.
$287,459 Vol.
Redução de mais de 50 pontos-base
<1%
Redução de 25 pontos-base
<1%
Nenhuma alteração
90%
Aumento
10%
Nenhuma alteração 90%
Aumento 10.1%
Redução de 25 pontos-base <1%
Redução de mais de 50 pontos-base <1%
$287,459 Vol.
$287,459 Vol.
Redução de mais de 50 pontos-base
<1%
Redução de 25 pontos-base
<1%
Nenhuma alteração
90%
Aumento
10%
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the Bank Rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of England's April 2026 meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of England (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the Bank Rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of England's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the start date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Mercado Aberto: Feb 6, 2026, 5:23 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the Bank Rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of England's April 2026 meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of England (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the Bank Rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of England's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the start date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 90% implied probability of the Bank of England holding Bank Rate at 3.75% at its April 30 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, reflecting caution amid persistent 3.0% CPI inflation in February and an energy price shock from Middle East conflict. The MPC's unanimous March 19 decision to maintain rates underscored readiness to counter upside inflation risks, while Governor Bailey's April 1 remarks dismissed markets as "ahead of themselves" on hike bets, emphasizing balanced focus on growth and labor market softening. Yesterday's BoE Decision Maker Panel revealed firms' sharpest rise in price expectations since 2022, yet wage forecasts eased to 3.4%, bolstering the no-change positioning with a modest 10% hike tail risk ahead of March CPI data.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions