Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 87.5% implied probability of a Bank of Russia key rate decrease at the April meeting, reflecting the central bank's March 20 decision to cut by 50 basis points to 15% amid annual inflation easing to 5.9% and a forecast trajectory toward 4.5–5.5% for 2026. Cooling price dynamics, including significant February slowdowns from one-off factors, and signals of unused economic capacity have shifted monetary policy toward easing, with analysts projecting 100–600 basis points of further cuts this year. No change at 11.5% accounts for persistent household inflation expectations near 13.4% and external risks like elevated oil prices, while hikes remain negligible at 0.3%. Traders eye the late-April Board meeting amid softening growth forecasts.