Polymarket traders are pricing a 76.5% implied probability for a Selic rate decrease at the Banco Central do Brasil's June 18-19 Copom meeting, driven by cooling inflation and the central bank's ongoing easing cycle after May's 25 basis-point cut to 10.5%. April's IPCA rose 3.6% year-over-year—below the 4.5% upper target band—bolstered by falling food prices and moderated core pressures, despite sticky services inflation. Resilient Q1 GDP growth tempers aggressive cuts, elevating no-change odds to 22%, while an increase at 15.5% reflects tail risks from USD/BRL volatility near 5.20 and potential fiscal slippage. Consensus anticipates a 25bps trim to 10.25% if data aligns, though upside CPI surprises could pivot sentiment.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoBank of Brazil Decision in June?
Bank of Brazil Decision in June?
Decrease 76%
No Change 21%
Increase 3%
Increase
14%
No Change
21%
Decrease
76%
Decrease 76%
No Change 21%
Increase 3%
Increase
14%
No Change
21%
Decrease
76%
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Brazil after its June 2026 policy meeting, currently scheduled for June 15-16, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar: https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Brazil's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 24, 2026, 7:33 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Polymarket traders are pricing a 76.5% implied probability for a Selic rate decrease at the Banco Central do Brasil's June 18-19 Copom meeting, driven by cooling inflation and the central bank's ongoing easing cycle after May's 25 basis-point cut to 10.5%. April's IPCA rose 3.6% year-over-year—below the 4.5% upper target band—bolstered by falling food prices and moderated core pressures, despite sticky services inflation. Resilient Q1 GDP growth tempers aggressive cuts, elevating no-change odds to 22%, while an increase at 15.5% reflects tail risks from USD/BRL volatility near 5.20 and potential fiscal slippage. Consensus anticipates a 25bps trim to 10.25% if data aligns, though upside CPI surprises could pivot sentiment.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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